Vincent Oshoma, an economist and Acting Managing Director of Midpoint Capital Limited, has addressed the timeline for tangible effects from government reforms, criticising the focus on long-term benefits without immediate relief.
“When government officials talk about these reforms, they continue to talk about [them being] good in the long run, but the economists will tell you that… in the long run, we are all dead – Nigerians will want wins… quick wins and medium to long-term wins that Nigerians can be able to associate with.” He said.
In an interview with Arise News on Tuesday, Oshoma noted that while GDP growth is a positive indicator, its impact on Nigerians is limited.
“A lot of Nigerians are not really feeling the impact of this growth, but that does not take away the fact that we have a growth in the economy which in some way is positive and good,” Oshoma said.
He emphasised the distinction between economic growth and development, adding, “We are experiencing this growth, but the average Nigerian will not feel it because it’s not actually affecting them.”
Oshoma further addressed concerns about the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which face significant challenges despite heavy government investment. He pointed to policy issues such as forex devaluation and high costs of living, which have strained the manufacturing sector.
“Manufacturing association of Nigeria has complained [about] closures in a lot of companies… I think in reversing that trend, we need targeted policies at the manufacturing sector,” he explained.
He also highlighted infrastructural deficiencies, high operational costs, and reduced disposable income as critical factors affecting these sectors. Oshoma suggested that the government introduce measures like tax cuts to help businesses survive, stating, “Their survival has a long impact on the average Nigerian and the economy.”
On the subject of rebasing GDP and inflation estimates, Oshoma expressed scepticism about its practical benefits, describing it as more statistical than impactful.
“In terms of rebasing the GDP calculation… it’s just for statistics and for reports,” he noted.
While rebasing allows for the inclusion of emerging sectors, such as Nollywood and ICT, Oshoma cautioned that it does little to address underlying economic issues.
“It’s not about rebasing; it’s about doing the necessary things that will have a real impact on growth and development in the economy,” he said.
Oshoma highlighted key reforms such as subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and increased power costs, which have contributed to economic disruption. He warned that without visible benefits, citizens’ dissatisfaction could derail the reform agenda.
“Policy administrators need to look at quick wins… that will help Nigerians go through these tough times that we are going through,” he concluded.
Faridah Abdulkadiri
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