President Nicolás Maduro
Venezuelans are voting on Sunday in a critical election that poses the biggest challenge to the ruling socialist PSUV party in 25 years.
President Nicolás Maduro, who has led the country since the death of his predecessor Hugo Chávez in 2013, is seeking a third consecutive term. His main opponent is Edmundo González, a former diplomat backed by a coalition of opposition parties.
Polling data suggests González holds a significant lead over Maduro. However, concerns persist about the integrity of the election, particularly given the widespread dismissal of Maduro’s 2018 re-election as neither free nor fair.
These fears are exacerbated by Maduro’s assertion that he will secure victory “by hook or by crook.” The limited presence of international election observers—just four from the United Nations and a small team from the Carter Center—further heightens these concerns.
An invitation to EU observers was revoked by the head of the electoral authority, a close Maduro ally, and former Argentine President Alberto Fernández was uninvited after suggesting Maduro should accept a potential defeat.
In response to the lack of international oversight, the opposition has mobilised thousands of local witnesses to monitor individual ballot stations. Despite ongoing harassment and the arrest of over 100 opposition supporters this year, the opposition remains optimistic, arguing that González’s lead is too substantial for Maduro to manipulate the results.
Maduro has dismissed opposition polls, claiming his campaign is leading. He has also used stark language, warning of a “bloodbath” if he loses, a statement that drew criticism from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Throughout the campaign, Maduro has positioned himself as a resilient leader, invoking the imagery of a fighting cockerel and pledging continued defiance against foreign interference.
This election marks a rare moment of unity among the opposition, which has coalesced behind González following the disqualification of their original candidate, María Corina Machado. The opposition promises to transform Venezuela, enabling millions of exiled citizens to return home.
The emigration of 7.8 million Venezuelans underscores the election’s significance, with international attention focused on the potential outcomes.
A González victory could lead to a significant geopolitical shift, potentially realigning Venezuela away from allies like Cuba, China, Iran, and Russia, and towards the United States. González has called for a restoration of democracy, criticising the PSUV’s control over the executive, legislative, and judicial branches.
The National Electoral Council (CNE), dominated by government loyalists, will oversee the electronic voting and announce results, expected as early as 20:00 local time. The winner will be sworn into office on 10 January 2025.
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