Economist Paul Alaje has cautioned that US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policy could significantly disrupt Nigeria’s economy-not in abstract terms, but through specific economic disruptions. These include rising import inflation, worsening exchange rate volatility, and reduced trade flows beyond crude oil.
Speaking during an interview with ARISE NEWS on Wednesday, Alaje said Nigeria, like many African countries, may face a fresh wave of economic pressure as Trump’s trade approach — aimed at securing US economic dominance — could have ripple effects across the world, including Africa’s fragile, import-dependent markets.
Alaje explained that although Nigeria may appear shielded because of its crude oil exports, the broader economy remains highly exposed.
He said, “I’ve heard some government officials say the Nigerian economy is protected against the policy that President Trump is making. Well, I would say to the extent of selling off crude, the person that spoke may be correct, but when you look at the economy at large, we have started feeling the impact from exchange rates. It will affect us. Beyond that, it will also affect us when it comes to what the commodity we are selling abroad, other than crude and agriculture, it will affect us.”
He also pointed to the uncertain future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), warning that if Trump’s tariffs extend to African nations under this agreement, regional trade strategies would require urgent rethinking.
“What is not very clear is the role of AGOA that will soon expire, if America will introduce tariff or not. If they don’t, then it’s good, but if they do, then the rest of Africa, we need to have a rethink.”
Additionally, he noted that America’s trade interactions with third-party countries like Japan — who in turn trade with Nigeria — could indirectly harm Africa’s access to essential goods.
He noted, “I must say that the impact of this tariff will affect us, not just because we are buying or selling to America, but because the world is a web. If America is selling to Japan and Nigeria is trading with Japan, and anything that we buy from Japan that Japan has input from America or is selling to America, it will certainly have an effect on us.
“What will be the quantum of effect? It depends on how high, how huge this impact is on different trading partners around the world. America’s role in the world is very significant. So all African countries, especially Nigeria, one of the key players in Africa must understand that it will affect us.
“So, we need to sit up. Do I think that we can solve this challenge overnight? The answer is no. But I know that certainly there are things that can be done.”
Melissa Enoch
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