The Fox News Decision Desk has projected that former President Donald Trump has secured a victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in the pivotal swing state of Pennsylvania. Throughout the campaign, polls indicated a tight contest for Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.
James Carville, a strategist for Bill Clinton’s campaign, famously described Pennsylvania as “Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between.” This sentiment remains relevant as Harris and the Democrats maintained strong support in these urban areas, whereas Republicans performed well in the central part of the state, particularly in the districts of Representatives Glenn Thompson and John Joyce.
Both Trump and Harris made multiple visits to Pennsylvania. Trump notably held a rally in Allentown, the third-largest city, which is in a key congressional district rated as “EVEN” by the Cook Political Report. Harris, on the other hand, concentrated her efforts in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area, where President Biden is from, and Pittsburgh. Biden also campaigned in Scranton and addressed union workers in Northeast Philadelphia, the most conservative area of the predominantly Democratic city.
In 2016, Trump famously broke through Pennsylvania’s “blue wall,” a feat that Biden reversed in 2020. During the current campaign, Republican activist Scott Presler was a familiar presence across the state, registering voters at various events and Penn State football games. Additionally, a “Team Trump” bus tour, featuring surrogates from Pennsylvania and beyond, traveled across the state, making notable stops in Duncansville, Chambersburg, and Newport.
The traditionally ‘purple’ Rust Belt state of Pennsylvania has re-emerged as a critical political battleground, especially after Trump’s unexpected victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. The state’s governor’s office has alternated between parties over the years, and while the legislature is typically Republican-majority, Democrats have had more success at the presidential level. Trump narrowly defeated Clinton by a margin similar to Biden’s win over Trump in 2020.
Since then, Democrats have gained ground in the House and Senate, with Pat Toomey’s former seat going to John Fetterman in 2022. Additionally, Democrats captured a key swing district after the 2018 retirement of anti-Trump Republican Charles W. Dent in Allentown, and Representative Scott Perry’s seat in the Cumberland Valley is expected to be highly competitive.
State Senator Cris Dush, a Republican from Brookville, was optimistic about Trump’s prospects. His district spans over 10% of Pennsylvania, covering Jefferson, Elk, Cameron, Centre, Clinton, McKean, and Potter counties. Centre County, home to Penn State University, was a rare Democratic stronghold in the midstate, targeted by Republicans like Scott Presler during his voter registration campaign. Dush noted that neighboring Clinton County, once solidly Democratic, has shifted significantly toward the Republicans, becoming “over 3-to-1 Republican.”
Dush attributed this change to the concerns of working-class, middle-aged, and senior voters over issues like job security, inflation, and social changes. “They’ve just finally had enough,” he said.
Pennsylvania was one of seven key swing states crucial for winning the election, alongside Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Together, these states account for 93 of the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency.
Several significant congressional races are also underway in Pennsylvania. Representative Susan Wild is defending her seat against GOP State Representative Ryan Mackenzie, Representative Matthew Cartwright is up against businessman Rob Bresnahan Jr., and Representative Chris Deluzio faces State Representative Rob Mercuri.
Frances Ibiefo
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