THISDAY Projects: With Northern Presidential Candidate, PDP Set to Lose Key Southern States in 2023

Although the decision by the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to throw its 2023 presidential ticket open, has not been sealed yet by its National Executive Committee (NEC), there are clear indications the party might compromise its otherwise bright chances in next year’s general election if it travelled that route.

Some of the unintended consequences of such a critical, but sensitive decision, is that the PDP might render some of its key states vulnerable and further unable to make significant impact in a few other equally crucial states, in addition to frittering away the presidency.

Therefore, the decision could make the PDP lose such states like Oyo, Delta, Rivers, Abia, Enugu, Akwa Ibom, Benue and Cross River (though currently controlled by the APC, however, a strong PDP state) in the governorship election.

Even more interesting is that the action does not guarantee the PDP would make any major impact in key northern states to compensate for the expected loss in the south.

For example, the PDP has never won Yobe and Borno States, and it is unlikely to perform any magic in 2023, to change the voting pattern. So, the party would face an uphill task winning these states even with a northern presidential candidate and the APC fielding a southern candidate.

This, nonetheless, Chairman of the PDP Zoning Committee and Governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom, on Wednesday, denied the claim, stating that the PDP National Executive Committee (NEC) would take a final decision on whether or not to throw the presidential ticket open.

Also, reactions to throwing the contest open to all came swiftly from several groups in the South, who have been clamouring for the presidential ticket to be zoned to the South.

Foremost Igbo socio-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, condemned the decision by the PDP to throw its presidential ticket open, saying it was a suicidal move.

A Pan-Niger Delta Forum, (PANDEF), has also expressed its disappointment at the PDP decision, saying it was an awful decision that would have consequences.

A preponderance of submissions by analysts contended that if the party eventually produced a northern presidential candidate, it stood the chance of losing those southern states to the All Progressives Congress (APC), especially, that it had already begun to make inroads into the southern states.

Unfortunately, the possibility that PDP might pick its presidential candidate for the 2023 general election from the North is high, because the north, which has more delegates would ensure that a northerner emerged at its presidential primaries.

Yet, with a northern presidential candidate, the PDP might lose some of the states it controls in the South-south, Southeast and at the same time, unable to make serious impacts in some APC-controlled northern states, both at the governorship and presidential polls.

A survey report sighted by THISDAY, which advised against throwing the ticket open, alluded to the agitation and position of the southern governors that the next president should come from their region.

The party would be going against the mood of its support zone, if it fields a northerner. According to analysts, “there is no way the party will escape the wrath of the of the South”, if it goes ahead to pick a northerner as its candidate.

According to the survey, the PDP states had already complained of the implications of being in opposition by 2023, and cited the frequent defections of some of their governors and members of the National Assembly to the APC, as a development that could not be glossed over.

The survey, therefore, warned that the PDP might lose governorship elections in Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Cross Rivers, Rivers and Oyo states, because it might lose grip of the attendant protests for a southern presidential candidate.

While the survey report stated that the party might win in Adamawa state, it noted unequivocally that it would be unable to make any positive input in Borno and Yobe States, as it has never won elections in the two north east states

Importantly, with the resignation of Rabiu Kwankwanso from the PDP and his membership of a relatively unknown New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), the PDP might not make any positive impact in Kano State.

The survey further analysed that, should the APC also pick a southern presidential candidate, it would take advantage of the whirlwind protests against the PDP, which is determined to go north.

The report reiterated that only Adamawa State might be retained by the PDP in the north as 2023 would be a smooth-sail victory for the APC.

Whereas the southern states of Delta, Enugu, Akwa Ibom, Rivers and Benue in the north central might be taken over by the APC, because of the solidarity of the ruling party picking a southern presidential candidate, in tune with the mood of the nation.

A copy of the recommendation of the zoning committee obtained by THISDAY stated thus: “Zoning, as in our party constitution, is affirmed. Inspite of (1) above, ticket is thrown open, this time around due to exigency of time. Our party is encouraged to always make the issue of zoning very clear, at least, six months before sales of forms.

“Our party should commend the efforts of some our contestants on the issue of consensus candidacy; the efforts should be seen to a peaceful and logical conclusion.”

But no date has been fixed for the National Executive Committee (NEC) the party, where it is expected to ratify the recommendation.

To that extent, the survey report sighted by THISDAY, stated that there would be a mark up in the 2015 and 2019 election figures for the APC in the South, due to the fact that the party would field a presidential candidate from South, giving value to the aspirations of the people of the South.

 

Verified INEC Figures of 2019 Election

A verified INEC figures of the 2019 election, put registered voters as follows: North West:20 million; South West: 15.8 million; North Central: 13.1 million; South-south: 12.6 million; North East: 11.3 million and South East: 9.5 million, put the total for northern Nigeria at 44.3 million and Southern Nigeria at 38 million.

Also, it stated that, 35 in every 100 Nigerian that registered to vote in 2019 presidential election, voted. Thus, in Northern Nigeria, the figure was 41, while the Southern Nigeria posted 27.

The figures for the turnout also broke down the election categories as follow: Presidential Election: North West, 44%; North East, 43%; North Central, 37%; South-south, 28%; South West, 28%, and South East, 25%. Over all, the Northern Nigeria had 41% while the Southern Nigeria had 27%.

 

Highest Voting States

A breakdown of the 2019 highest voting states listed the top 10. Kano: NW, 1.96; Kaduna: NW, 1.71m; Katsina: NW, 1.62m; Lagos: SW, 1.16m; Jigawa: NW, 1.15m; Plateau: NC,1.06m; Bauchi: NE, 1.06m; Borno, NE, 955K; Sokoto: NW, 926K and Niger: NC, 897K.

Yet, the 2019 least voting states, according to the survey, gave the breakdown. On the presidential election, Bayelsa: SS, 336K; Abia: SE, 344K; Ebonyi: SE, 379K; Ekiti: SW,394K; Cross River: SS, 446K; Enugu: SE, 451K; FCT: NC, 451K; Kwara: NC, 486K; Imo: SE, 543K; and Kogi: NC, 553K.

 

Factors That Informed the THISDAY Projections

Clearly, these are not some armchair analyses but informed by existential factors, which point in plausible directions for the different categories of elections. However, in the presidential run, there are three critical factors that currently lent credence to the THISDAY projections.

The first factor is that the APC is still strong in the north despite insecurity and banditry. This is essentially, because they still have the support of three key religious groups in the north.

The groups include the one led by Sheikh Dahiru Usman Bauchi. There’s another led by Muhammad Sanusi II, former emir of Kano, the Tijaniyya Islamic sect, and of course, there is the Izala Muslim sect, formally Jama’at Izalatul. They have continued to mobilise support for the APC and so, it is still very strong in the north.

The second factor is that, even if the PDP fielded a northern candidate, it still couldn’t defeat the APC in the north and at the same time, it would lose in the south, because APC would still retain its northern hold, while the PDP would lose the south.

However, the third factor is the mood of the country. In 1999, the mood of the country was for a South-west candidate, because of the June 12 crisis, which also explained why the two presidential candidates at the time – Olusegun Obasanjo and Oluyemisi Falae – were from the zone.

In 2011, the mood was for Niger Delta, albeit by providence, and former President Goodluck Jonathan, won. And now, the mood is for a southern candidate, however, from the Southeast zone.

Above all, the second term APC governors are also determined to ensure successors of choice, a development that would make the election stiff and clearly in their favour with the incumbency factor largely in force.

 

Ortom: Ticket Not Open Yet, NEC Will Take Final Decision

Chairman of the PDP Zoning Committee and Governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom, has denied claim that the party had thrown its ticket open, saying a final decision on the matter would be taken by the PDP National Executive Committee (NEC).

Ortom said members of the committee met, and unanimously adopted a position, but concluded not to make the decision public until NEC makes a final pronouncement on it.

Ortom, who spoke on the ARISE NEWS Channel, stressed that what was decided at the meeting would be subject to NEC’s approval, adding that NEC could either decide in agreement with what they did, or decide to subtract or add to it.

“All that we did was a recommendation and that was why we felt that it was premature for us to let the cat out of the bag. PDP has not brought out a report, and that will be done by NEC, so don’t crucify us.

“They will soon invite us to a meeting, a decision will be taken and then, we can move on from there. NEC has the final authority to decide the zoning. So, when that decision is made, then, the party will give a directive,” he said.

The governor, however, said the committee’s work at their own level had been concluded and the report submitted to NEC to decide on what they thought was best for the party at the material time.

“We are just 37 members selected from each state and the Federal Capital Territory. But I want to tell you, that PDP is very mindful. We listen to the people, because we are a grassroots party; we are people-oriented and will make sure that whatever we do reflects the interests of our people in the PDP and for Nigerians.

“Two heads are better than one and we have been able to send a recommendation to NEC. They will make a final decision and I think we will soon be invited for a meeting, because in any case, most of the members of the committee happen to be members of NEC. So, there will be a robust discussion on what will help Nigeria and our party to win in 2023,” Ortom further said.

Interestingly, he made his position known to all on the zoning, when he said the presidency should be zoned to the south, adding that zoning was part of PDP’s constitution and they were able to resolve what they thought was best for the party, adding that, this was his personal position right from the beginning.

His words: “I am not talking as a zoning committee member or the chairman of zoning committee; I am talking as Samuel Ortom. Most importantly, what can we do to get back to where we stopped in 2015, because Nigerians were aware of how PDP was able to manage the economy, the security, the social life, and everything?

“As of today, we have already gone from top to bottom and we’re not just talking at the bottom, we are going beneath the bottom, if no drastic action is taken with someone with the capacity to deliver. It means all of us are going to be buried soon.

“For some of us, we have made sacrifices. The unity of Nigeria cannot be compromised and I’m ready to sacrifice anything to ensure justice, equity, and fairness, for our people,” Ortom said.

Reacting to accusations that some aspirants were trying to use money to get the ticket, he said people are entitled to their opinions but encouraged Nigerians to always seek the truth, even as he urged everybody to team up in the fight for justice, equity and fairness in everything, knowing that this is a democratic rule.

He said, “We are really looking at the larger picture of winning the election. It is not just about having a candidate, but it is about going ahead campaigning and winning the election so that we can rescue Nigeria and build it, which is our paramount interest as at now.”

The committee chairman explained that PDP’s NEC had always been represented by all members of the party in the entire country from the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), adding that other people from outside, who were not members of NEC could still make input.

“This is an opportunity to get it right. PDP got it wrong in 2015 and they paid dearly for it. I am sure our people have learnt from the mistakes that were done in the past and that is why you can see we are not talking about imposition of candidates. We are talking about doing due process in ensuring that democracy gets to the grassroots and the people themselves, have a say, who becomes their representative.

“So, the issue of money is not the focus. In 2015, there was money everywhere, but did PDP win? Today, we are focusing on assuring that we get the hearts of the people and I believe that in doing this, we must ensure justice, fairness, equity and truthfulness, in all that we do,” Ortom said.

The Benue governor also accused the present administration of rigging in past elections, stating that from the information that they had been able to gather, the opposition has plans to still rig in futute elections, but said PDP would not allow such to happen again.

He reiterated that the reason he was banned from seeing President Muhammadu Buhari was because he was advising him to do the right thing.

“The government does not have the interest of the people. They only have their own personal interest. If the federal government does not act fast, Nigeria will be buried and that is where we are headed,” Ortom added.

 

Ohanaeze: Throwing Presidential Ticket Open is Political Betrayal

A foremost Igbo socio-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, has condemned the decision by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to throw its presidential ticket open to aspirants from all parts of the country and described it as political betrayal.

According to a statement by the National Publicity Secretary, Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide, Chiedozie Alex Ogbonnia, the group, which urged all the Igbo presidential aspirants to remain focused and undounted, wondered why the party decided to jettison zoning now that it was the turn of the South, particularly, the South East.

“For purpose of clarity, rotation and zoning principle was engrained into the PDP party’s Constitution in 2009. Article 7 (2) (c) of the PDP Constitution states: ‘In pursuance of the principle of equity, justice and fairness, the party shall adhere to the policy of rotation and zoning of party and public elective offices, and it shall be enforced by the appropriate executive committee at all levels,” Ohanaeze explained.

The group noted that such “unscrupulous violation of the zoning principle that has been well entrenched in the PDP constitution simply changes the rules of the game in order to deprive Ndigbo the opportunity to produce a president for Nigeria.”

It claimed it was a political blunder and betrayal, given what Ndigbo had suffered in the country and most recently, for supporting the PDP.

“History has never been kind to betrayers and the treacherous,” Ohanaeze said, stressing that, “The machinations and conspiracies to deny Ndigbo their due place in Nigeria is an ingratitude that daily cries to God.”

Ohanaeze reiterated the position of the Southern and Middle Belt Leadership Forum led by Chief E K Clark, that any party that does not zone its presidential ticket to the South should not expect the support of the Middle Belt and the entire South.

The organisation maintained that one of the roles of a political party in a democracy was nation building and that for the PDP to shirk its responsibilities, was an unfortunate path to Golgotha.

The statement read in part: “Let it be known that it runs contrary to the indomitable Igbo spirit to swallow any form of indignity, disdain or condescension from anybody or group. It is, therefore, highly inconceivable that the Igbo will validate a party or group that runs roughshod over its sensibilities,” Ohanaeze said.

 

PANDEF: PDP’s Decision is Awful, Will Have Consequences

A Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), yesterday, expressed its disappointment in the decision of the PDP to throw its 2023 presidential ticket open, warning that such an awful decision would have consequences.

The Forum, in a release by its National Publicity Secretary, Hon. Ken Robinson, stated that it was not utterly surprised at the development, as the outcome was predictable, because there were evident pointers that this would be the conclusion.

PANDEF insisted that for fairness, equity, justice and in the nation’s interest, the next President of Nigeria, to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023, should come from the South.

It reiterated the call by the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders’ Forum (SMBLF) on the people and all lovers of peace and equity in Nigeria to reject any political party that failed to zone its presidential ticket to the South.

The statement stated, although in parts, “Governor Ortom’s Committee had a script and they have played it out, with due deference to some patriots that were in the Committee. The level of desperation and political debauchery being demonstrated by some political stakeholders is deplorable and quite disappointing.

“Regrettably, we are in a society, where it seems anything goes. We will await the conduct of the presidential primaries by the parties to assess the choices that would be presented to us. Anything otherwise would be detrimental to national peace and cohesion. The basis of any viable democracy, especially, in a diverse and complex country such as Nigeria, is fairness and even sharing of power.”

 

From PDP’s Zoning Committee, Some Inside Gist

Before the PDP zooming committee meeting commenced, it was observed that Professors ABC Nwosu and Jerry Gana, had in collaboration with like minds, drafted what they purported to represent the views of the committee at the previous meeting.

This was revealed to the meeting by the Deputy Chairman of the Committee and Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Hon Ndudi Elumelu.

However, to the rude shock of some members, Elumelu got up and wanted to present what he claimed was the draft resolution of the committee for adoption.

He was angrily shouted down by some committee members from the South. Someone would later query why Nwosu and Gana hijacked the duty and responsibility of the committee’s secretariat to summarise their contributions and went ahead to draft resolutions for them.

At this juncture, Governor Samuel Ortom took the microphone from him and started pleading with the house for calm and understanding.

Enugu State Governor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, was obliged to make contributions and he spoke along the line of the decisions of his colleague, Ortom, on the challenges facing the PDP as opposition party as well as the expectations and opportunities for the party to seize.

Thereafter, the Taraba State Governor, Darius Ishaku, who was visibly angry, made reference to the submission of Bode George on the need for equity, fairness and justice to be reflected in all that the PDP would come out with.

But it was Senator Jonah Jang, a former Governor of Plateau State, who took strong exceptions to the attitude of his colleagues and queried the justification and morality in what they were saying.

He bluntly told everyone that what they are about to do by denying the South East Zone their God-given opportunity at this time of national distress to step in and rescue Nigeria was an act of hatred, cruel and unjust.

Ibrahim Shema, former Governor of Katsina State, was unapologetic in his submission and quoted various sections of the PDP Constitution to support his position and insistence on Rotation and Zoning.

As a former Deputy Chairman of the PDP, he counselled the committee to adopt the strategies of the past in cases like this, rotate and zone as per the PDP Constitution. He claimed that would not preclude those opposed to it from contesting, because it was their constitutional right, and by so doing, the party would have upheld its constitution.

In the midst of grumbling, Nze Ozichukwu Chukwu, whose brilliant and explosive memorandum, had been earlier circulated took the microphone and made a very moving speech that provoked an outcry at the meeting.

He challenged their minds with incidences, facts and figures while buttressing and reinforcing the submission of Governor Shema. He equally reminded all of the need for justness and sincerity. He spoke of the need to reinterpret the paper of Professors ABC Nwosu and Jerry Gana into ordinary language for them to become effective instruments for action.

How efficient will they be? To whose benefits? He queried. He went further to caution the PDP not to take the “sensitivities and sensibilities of the masses” for granted and insisted that rotation and zoning were the pillars on which the PDP was anchored and what would happen in the event that the PDP jettisoned it and APC dusted it and embraced it.

At this point, Ortom asked him, “Please, what do you want us to do?” He responded and said, “Your Excellency, please, let us do right things right and zone the presidency to the South.”

At this juncture there was an uproar. Alhaji Sule Lamido spoke but the eruption that attended Nze Ozichukwu’s bombshell drowned his voice. To those who became quite uncomfortable and apprehensive, he cited the “need to diligently and sincerely cultivate the civilisation of dialogue.

“We overheard him telling the chairman that as a democrat, he will sign the draft resolution not as a consensus document, but as reflecting majority opinion though no voting by raising of hands took place but he heard the voice votes.

“After the meeting, we wanted to seek audience with Nze Ozichukwu for more light but he disappeared. By the time we went out looking for him, we were told that he had driven out with his driver,” a source who was at the meeting.

 

Fayose: PDP Must Tread Carefully over Zoning

A former governor of Ekiti State and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential hopeful, Ayodele Fayose, has advised the opposition party to tread with caution and respect the existing zoning arrangement between the South and the North.

He also maintained that he was not going to step down for aspirants from any zone, because the sentiment that only the north could win election for the party must be jettisoned.

The former governor, who was a guest on a Channels TV programme, Politics Today, a few hours after purchasing his presidential nomination form, said he was ready for the onslaught.

Fayose said he intentionally bought his nomination form to challenge the status quo and fight some powerful forces in the party, who wanted to silence or shortchange the south in the scheme of things.

“Nigeria as a country has a diversity. And for that reason, we (PDP) must tread carefully. We must be very careful. The peculiarities, including the minority, the south, the north the middle belt and sentiment of religion for us to coexist brought into the fore to create within our constitution that there should be time to the north and there should be a time to the south.

“If you remember what happened in 1999, what brought President Obasanjo to power was the reason of grievances in the south, because they don’t have good time during the military.

“The agitation was so much and the killing of Abiola and all that, was what brought President Obasanjo. I remember in 1999, power was purposely zoned to the Southwest that gave Olu Falae and Obasanjo the opportunity. There was no other way.

Explaining why qualified aspirants from the South were not allowed to contest at the party’s last convention in Port Harcourt, he said they “didn’t contest because they were told it was purely a Northern affair’. I was told it was going to be a Northern affairs. And that was why you ad the Sarakis of this world, the Atiku, the Tambuwal and all of them. There was no southerner,” he recounted.

According to him, “If we don’t begin to put things in perspective and rightfully, our children will ask questions. The unfortunate demise of former President Yar’Adua is not enough an excuse for anybody to take away the letters of our constitution.

“Do we say if you contest an election and you lost, they (the north) must continue to produce you so that you win before zoning will count? No! The last election has given opportunity to the north. If they had won that election, they would be there today. I don’t believe in not zoning this presidential ticket.”

He said the zoning committee of the party, which he was a member made an error for failing to specially state where it would pick its next presidential flag bearer from.

“I believe it was an error. It was wrong. It was the more reason why I took my form today. I won’t be blamed for that. They would come back and say to us one day.

“Look at it from this angle. Who tells you that it’s the north that will give us the vote? Some people say it and I hear it: ‘let the person that can win.’ Who can win? Who tell you that I cannot win?

“Everybody on election day would hold his ward and his local government. We will all work together, even after primaries. We have to come together and work for whoever wins an election. Stop telling me it’s this person that can win. We are all great politicians in our states. We all donate our votes.”

Continuing, Fayose said, “Let me give you an example. Let me come from our respectable leader, His Excellency Atiku Abubakar. He won in Adamawa by less than 20,000 votes. Less than, with due respect to him, for reasons of analysis. Go to Sokoto, what is the voting difference?

“Let’s us go to Bukola Saraki in Kwara, we actually lost there. Let’s us sit back and look at figures. When somebody is saying this is the person that can win. Who is the person that can win? Let’s talk about the characters. If we don’t agree, we go to the field. We are not like the APC, where somebody will be begging you in the field.

“I am not stepping down. I am a young man, only 62. I won’t step down. The energy is there. The party cannot determine consensus. Let me tell you the truth, it’s within my right to contest an election. Even if they choose Governor Wike, I will still contest.

“Let all of us go to the field. It’s this issue of consensus, that you try to turn red to green and trying to silence some people. This one, I purposely went there to get this form and I will start to go to states to let them know I am prepared for the onslaught.”

 

Deji Elumoye, Chuks Okocha, Udora Orizu, Emameh Gabriel in Abuja, Emma Okonji, Nosa Alekhuogie in Lagos and Gideon Arinze in Enugu

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