The Sahel region is currently facing a major humanitarian crisis with over 3.3 million people displaced due to the prolonged conflict that has ravaged the region in the last few years. The International Organization for Migration is on record stating that one in every five people in the Central Sahel needs humanitarian aid. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have been the worst affected with incessant drought compounding an already dire situation. Specifically, these countries have witnessed a soaring rise in refugees who currently total over 500,000 with numbers projected to increase. The UNHCR has lamented that the Sahel refugee crisis is currently facing global neglect.
The deplorable security situation in the region continues to contribute to this humanitarian crisis. Vulnerable citizens have fled their homes in search of protection thus creating a crisis in neighbouring countries. In surveys conducted in 2024 by humanitarian organizations, refugees have stated that the key risks they face include gender-based violence meted on women, and wanton attacks on civilians. Women and children are especially at risk, and have been exposed to abuse, exploitation and in some cases human trafficking.
Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Mauritania have become embroiled in a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions with refugees from their respective countries circulating within the region randomly. Burkinabe refugees numbering over 115,000 have been recorded in neighbouring states as of April 2024. Mauritania, and Niger currently host over 200,00, and 130,000 refugees from Mali respectively. Another 50,000 Malian refugees are stuck in Algeria seeking asylum. Conversely Mali is also facing its own internal challenges with over 90,000 refugees from Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Niger currently stationed on its soil. Internally, Mali is facing the daunting task of dealing with its own internally displaced persons who number over 350,000.
The Sahel is in trouble as political and regional instability coupled with poor governance exacerbates the threat posed by this refugee crisis. International aid agencies are unable to cope with the growing demand for humanitarian support due to the ever-increasing numbers of refugees in the region.
Russia’s Contribution to the Humanitarian Crisis
At the heart of this humanitarian crisis in the Sahel is Russia’s incursion and entrenchment in the region. Russia has capitalized on the Sahel’s volatility to pursue a selfish state-centric agenda that ignores the outcome of its action in the region. The fragile states in the region like the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Sudan have been infiltrated by the Wagner group/ Afrika Corps who ostensibly provide security for these regimes. Russia’s security offer often prioritizes ensuring regime survival of the coup governments in the Sahel. However, Russia’s destabilizing military activity is almost certainly fueling regional insurgencies and exacerbating the refugee crisis.
Russia has also selfishly pursed a political agenda with the backing of these regimes in its quest for geopolitical power play now that Frances’ and the United States influence in the region appears to be waning. Russia’s long-term strategy in the region is to not only re-assert itself as a global power, but more importantly create a bulwark of loyal African states whose regimes will shield it from international criticism, and more importantly scrutiny on what its’ doing on the African continent.
In an unhealthy symbiotic relationship, Russia has embarked on propping up and legitimizing illegal regimes in exchange for mineral concessions and other raw materials. The Sahel is rich in rare precious minerals like cobalt, uranium, bauxite, and lithium. Illegal corrupt regimes in the Sahel use Russia to secure and shore up their positions, as they grant Moscow access to these rare minerals where profits are shared between them. While ostensibly providing security in these countries, Russia is taking advantage of instability to exploit African Minerals resources. It has been alleged that this illegal mineral extraction has found its way back into the Russian economy and war effort in the Ukraine.
In this endeavour the Wagner Group has been used to secure Russian economic interests in the Sahel. Direct involvement of Russian mercenaries in the Sahel region has created security challenges that have contributed to the humanitarian crisis in the region. In central Mali Wagner forces in conjunction with the Malian Armed Forces were responsible for the Moura massacre in which over 300 civilians lost their lives in March 2021. This sparked an exodus of civilian as they fled the region. This massacre was conducted under the guise of fighting the Al-Qaeda affiliated Islamic Maghreb’s Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin group. Unfortunately, the Wagner groups continued presence Mali has not deterred or eliminated these Jihadist attacks in the country. A United Nations Mandated mission, United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) also faces challenges due to local militia and the Wagner Groups’ interference in their activities in the country. It has now dawned on the Malian government that Russian mercenaries’ have proven ineffective. Furthermore, Human Rights Watch has indicated that the Wagner group in conjunction with the Malian Army has continued to execute civilians from December 2023 in the central and northern regions of the country leading to refugee crisis.
Russia’s dalliance with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo has made the refugee crisis worse in the Sudan conflict. The Wagner group has been a supporter of the RSF forces and have continued supplying weapons that have fuelled the conflict between the RSF and Sudan Army. The Sudan conflict has led to the displacement of over 10 million people internally with a further 2.1million outside the country now classified as refugees.
Russia has proven that it will continue to fuel instability in the Sahel so long as it serves its economic and national interests. Unless the international community sanctions Russisa’s activities on the African continent, the refugee crisis in the Sahel will continue to get worse overwhelming aid agencies.
Dr. Edgar Githua, Ph.D. is an International Relations, Diplomacy, and Security Analyst from Strathmore University.
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