Sudan War Death Toll Significantly Much Higher Than Recorded, Researchers Say

Over 61,000 people are estimated to have died in Khartoum state during the initial 14 months of Sudan’s war, with evidence suggesting that the conflict’s toll is significantly higher than previously recorded, according to a new report from researchers in Britain and Sudan.

The estimate includes approximately 26,000 people who lost their lives to violent causes, a figure surpassing the current number used by the United Nations for the entire country.

The preprint study, conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Sudan Research Group and released on Wednesday prior to peer review, indicates that starvation and disease are increasingly becoming the primary causes of death reported across Sudan.

Researchers stated that the estimated death rate from all causes in Khartoum state is 50% higher than the national average prior to the outbreak of conflict between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in April 2023.

The UN reports that the conflict has displaced 11 million people and sparked the world’s largest hunger crisis, with nearly 25 million people – half of Sudan’s population – now needing aid, and famine confirmed in at least one displacement camp. However, accurately counting the dead has proven challenging.

Researchers note that even in times of peace, many deaths go unregistered in Sudan. As the conflict escalated, people were cut off from facilities that document deaths, such as hospitals, morgues, and cemeteries. Frequent disruptions to internet services and telecommunications have also left millions unable to reach the outside world.

The study “tried to capture that invisibility” by applying a sampling technique known as “capture-recapture,” said lead author Maysoon Dahab, an infectious disease epidemiologist and co-director of the Sudan Research Group.

Originally developed for ecological research, this method has been used in past studies to estimate the number of deaths during Sudan’s pro-democracy protests in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic, situations where full counts were not possible, she explained.

To estimate deaths, researchers used data from at least two independent sources and searched for individuals appearing on multiple lists. The less overlap between the lists, the more likely it is that deaths have gone unrecorded, allowing for an estimate of the full death toll.

In this study, researchers compiled three separate lists of the deceased. The first was based on a public survey circulated via social media between November 2023 and June 2024. The second used “study ambassadors” – including community activists – to distribute the survey within their networks. The third list was derived from obituaries posted on social media, a common practice in Khartoum, Omdurman, and Bahri, which together form the greater capital.

Faridah Abdulkadiri

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