All is set for Saturday’s governorship election in Edo State, as campaigns ended on Thursday, according to the timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Edo State Government has also declared Friday, September 20, a work-free day in the state to enable workers and other electorate travel to their voting areas ahead of the exercise.
However, there are six key trends to watch out for in Saturday’s election as they are likely to shape the outcome of the governorship election.
The number one trend is: The Olumide Akpata factor.
The question of whose votes will be taken away is critical to the outcome of the election. In other words, will Akpata take votes away from the PDP or the APC? It is important to note that whoever he hurts the most may lose and he could sneak in as a result.
The second trend is: The place of Peter Obi.
With the Labour Party playing up its national leader, Obi, President Bola Tinubu might have been dragged into the race, too. This is because in backing Akpata, an Obi win, will be a springboard for him to challenge Tinubu/APC in 2027. To that extent, Tinubu is not taking it lightly. And the power of the federal might and its incumbency has joined the race. Added to that, Labour made a direct pitch to Edo voters that if they vote Akpata, Obi will likely be president in 2027.
Trend number three is: The ‘Edo no be Lagos’ slogan of Obaseki.
Unfortunately, the slogan, which seemed to have worked immensely during Obaseki’s re-election bid might become his Achilles’ heel now. It just might be payback time, as again Tinubu joins the race with federal incumbency to support APC’s Okphebolo
The fourth key trend in Saturday’s election is: The Oba of Benin, Omo N’Oba N’Edo Uku Akpolokpolo, Ewuare II factor.
Fighting the Oba by Obaseki could also be another unpleasant payback for the outgoing governor and his party, the PDP. This trend cannot be overemphasised given the influence of the monarch. Again, Asue Ighodalo is inheriting Obaseki’s biggest political enemy.
If the Oba roars tonight through town criers in the villages, the voters may follow his direction
The fifth trend is: The enduring strength and power of incumbency of the governor at the grassroots.
This factor is directly proportional to running on his record. As the incumbent, he comes with a lot of grounds. With the power incumbency at the state level, Obaseki has the ground game, crucial to any electoral victory: Teachers, civil servants and the local government apparatchik. Therefore, the election is his to lose. However he faces an uphill battle with the federal might, with INEC, police and army if they choose to go partisan.
This brings us to the sixth and final trend: Which is the role of the critical institutions in the electoral process.
For instance, will INEC, the police and the army be neutral? Allegations of biases are already swirling. It is a litmus test for INEC and others as Edo projects Nigeria to the world on Saturday.
Will these institutions be checkmated by local and international election observers? Will INEC be free and fair and put its reputation further at risk at a time it should be building back better? And will BVAS work or will it be compromised? Will the election be free and fair?
Meanwhile, ahead of the election on Saturday, INEC has warned political parties to eschew illegal campaigning, as campaigns ended at midnight on Thursday, September 19.
Labour Party (LP) said the involvement of its presidential candidate in the 2023 general election, Peter Obi, in the governorship campaign of Mr. Olumide Akpata, was borne out of his desire to promote democracy and development in Edo State.
At the same time, Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, Kogi Central, described the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate in the election, Asue Ighodalo, as possessing impeccable academic qualifications and experience to provide the requisite leadership to develop the state.
Former President Goodluck Jonathan sued for peace, while charging state institutions involved in managing the election process to create a level-playing field to ensure a free and fair exercise.
That was as the Police Service Commission (PSC) charged officers on election duty to be civil and smart, but strict in enforcing the electoral laws.
In a statement, on Thursday, Secretary to the Edo State Government, Joseph Eboigbe, reassured the people that security measures had been provided to ensure a free, fair, and credible election.
The statement read, “It is hereby announced for the information of the general public that the Edo State Government has declared Friday, September 20, a work-free day in Edo State.
“This is to enable workers and other electorate travel to their voting areas ahead of the September 21 governorship election in the state.
“Government wishes everyone journey mercies and reassures that security measures have been provided to ensure a free, fair and credible election.”
Chuks Okocha, Adedayo Akinwale, Sunday Aborisade, Linus Aleke, Adibe Emenyonu and Chinedu Eze
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