Saudi Arabia has shifted its focus from seeking an ambitious defence treaty with the United States, tied to normalising relations with Israel, to advocating for a more modest military cooperation agreement, according to two Saudi and four Western officials cited by Reuters.
Earlier this year, Riyadh appeared willing to soften its stance on Palestinian statehood in exchange for a broad security pact with Washington. It indicated that a public commitment from Israel to a two-state solution might suffice for normalising relations with the Gulf kingdom.
However, heightened public anger across Saudi Arabia and the Middle East over Israel’s military actions in Gaza has prompted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to revert to demanding tangible steps from Israel toward establishing a Palestinian state as a condition for recognition. Two Saudi and three Western sources confirmed this shift.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains keen on achieving normalisation with Saudi Arabia, viewing it as a historic breakthrough and a symbol of growing acceptance in the Arab world. Yet, he faces significant domestic resistance to any concessions toward Palestinian statehood, especially following the Hamas attacks on October 7. Such a move could fracture his ruling coalition, Western diplomats explained.
Given these domestic constraints, both in Israel and Saudi Arabia, Riyadh and Washington are exploring a scaled-down defence agreement they hope to finalise before US President Joe Biden leaves office in January, the sources stated.
Unlike a comprehensive mutual defence treaty, which would require US Senate approval by a two-thirds majority—a challenging prospect without Saudi recognition of Israel—the proposed pact would focus on enhancing military cooperation. This includes expanding joint exercises, fostering partnerships between US and Saudi defence firms with safeguards against collaboration with China, and addressing regional threats primarily from Iran.
The agreement under discussion would also promote Saudi investments in advanced technologies such as drone defence. The US might deploy a Patriot missile battalion to Riyadh and increase its presence through training, logistics, and cybersecurity support.
However, this agreement would not oblige US forces to defend Saudi Arabia in case of a foreign attack, marking a departure from the mutual defence arrangements sought initially.
“Saudi Arabia will get a security deal which will allow more military cooperation and sales of US weapons, but not a defence treaty similar to that of Japan or South Korea as initially sought,” said Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Institute think tank in Saudi Arabia.
Faridah Abdulkadiri
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