The CEO of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Samiu Adeyemi Adeniran, spoke on the recently reported drop in unemployment rate between the third quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2023 from 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was mentioned in a report titled ‘Nigeria Labour Force Statistics Report Q4 2022 & Q1 2023’ issued by the NBS on Thursday. According to the NBS, it has improved its approach for gathering labour market statistics via the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) in accordance with International Labour Organisation (ILO) criteria.
In an AISE NEWS interview on Thursday, Mr. Samiu stated that the change in statistics is not necessarily a drop in unemployment, but actually based on a newly adopted methodology in the nation. He stated that this method now takes into account those above the age of 64 and excludes persons who are not actively within the labour force or plan on engaging in it.
“We are not saying that it dropped from 33.3% to 4.1% because if you say that it means that there had been some improvement in the economy that absorbed people that made unemployment go down. It’s not that.
“before the working age population was between 15-64 years, whereas it was only in Nigeria we were using that and maybe in one or two other countries. but all our neighbouring countries, Ghana, Togo, Benin republic, Cameroon, they aren’t using that. That is an old standard that is set by ILO which Nigeria is a signatory to that convention.
“When it came to reality that people work after the age of 64, and they contribute immensely to the economy of the country, and we are saying that all the contribution of those people above ages 64 aren’t captured as being employed, we came together all over the world and said ‘this can no longer be sustained.’”
“About 26 other african countries have already adopted that new methodology and I can say that Nigeria is even coming behind in adopting it by this time. Now what we have is 15 years and above.”
The calculation is based on those in the Labour Force who are actively willing to work with proper qualifications and what sectors would need to be encouraged to take in more personnel. The labour force would then be calculated by taking into consideration employed persons who work for an hour plus within the last 7 days for pay or profit. The employed who are also temporarily absent, and also the unemployed who are available and searching for jobs.
According to Mr Adeniran who is the Statistician-General of the Federation, he said, “The data is not stating that those who are 64 and above are contributing more to the economy. The data is saying anyone that is engaged in an activity, it’s it better to cover them, study them so we have a broad and holistic information about what is happening in the labour market? That is the only way the Government can be able to plan properly.”
He also added that the new date would be effective in aiding the government to improve the creation of Social security and planning for senior citizen commissions in Nigeria.
Glamour Adah
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This is a classic case of perverse research in which the researcher works from a pre-determined “result” back to a “convenient methodology”!
First off, it is name-dropping and argumentum ad hominem to (implicitly) argue that we should unquestioningly accept a survey methodology because it was developed by the ILO, World Bank or indeed any other “reputable organisation”. Survey methodologies are chosen, as appropriate to the situation, and not necessarily only by the “reputation” of its developers or according to the results the researcher wants to get. In many cases (socioeconomic) prescriptions that have been developed by “reputable organisations,” and which worked elsewhere, have failed in Nigeria and the Third World; thus, suggesting that we must either develop entirely new, or tweak , these prescriptions to suit our own circumstance.
Secondly, a criterion for determining employment which classifies “employment” as anyone who is engaged in “profitable” work for a minimum of one hour a week is unrealistic, in present-day Nigeria; as it begs the question of how much an hour’s wage is worth, in contemporary Nigeria? E.g., pro-rated on hourly basis and on the assumption of a 40-hour working week, the Nigerian minimum monthly wage of N30000 (which many employers do not pay anyway) comes to N187.5 per hour, which is hardly able to take the worker to, and back from, work; let alone feed them (and their family) for one week! Again, it further begs the question of why we seek employment: is it for statistics or survival? While this NBS employment statistics may be good for government propaganda (I gather one of government’s new ministers is already claiming “victory”, by tweeting that it was “evidence” that their government was working hard to improve the lot of Nigerians) ; however, it is meaningless in reality, more so when it is not concomitantly accompanied by the statistics of jobs created over the survey period. And if one may further ask, what is the use of statistics whose impact the citizenry cannot see or feel? The clear answer to that question is: useless, an exercise in futility and self-deception, regardless of the intellectual sophistry that may be deployed to defend or excuse it. What we are seeing here is a case of “official magic” by working from answer to problem: the NBS knew the “answer” it wanted to get, and simply created , and solved, the “problem” that will give the desired “answer “!
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