A few weeks from now, two of these men – one each from the two main political parties – would emerge presidential candidates of their respective parties and dominate the political space in the countdown to the 2023 presidential run.
Currently, Nigeria boasts some 18 political parties, out of which less than five are truly active. But the season is here again and it’s expected that a majority, if not all, would start to activate their machines in readiness for the 2023 general election.
While many of the parties might field candidates for different elective offices, the possibility that a majority others would either form alliance or endorse the presidential candidates of either of the two major parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – is equally high.
Therefore, about some eight weeks from now, all the serious parties would start to hold their presidential primaries and be ready with their candidates in the countdown to the big event – the presidential bout – in February 2023.
Ahead of the presidential primaries, however, some presidential hopefuls have started to openly indicate their interests in the nation’s number one job, while a few others, who were deemed to be interested but have yet to say so, have equally hinted at the possibility, one way or the other.
But, their presidential aspiration aside, the fact of the moment is that the nation is in dire straits and there has never been a more urgent need to rescue Nigeria than it is now. Perhaps, the situation in Nigeria pre-2015 was nothing compared to the current situation, even though it necessitated the “change mantra” that brought in the incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari.
Challenged on all fronts – the same grounds the ruling APC travelled to power – the country has been hopping from increasing insecurity to a tottering economy and burgeoning corruption. Although the work of a president may not be physically demanding as does a bricklayer, it requires a degree of physical fitness and high mental alertness, to be able to address what is currently on the card in Nigeria.
Perhaps, the search for a messiah is back on stream and this time, the same opportunity, which presented itself in 2015, is showing up again except the Nigerian people choose to miss out on it, this time. There is a fierce urgency for a new leadership to steer the country away from the abyss to and redirect the ship of stay in a new direction. It starts with a carefully made presidential choice in 2023. This has become inevitable.
Thus, while zoning as a factor cannot be discarded arrogantly under whatever account or pretext, since it has become a critical glue holding the nation’s many tendencies together, the quality of the candidate needed to do the job, has become more compelling if the current search for a president for all Nigerians is altruistic.
Against this backdrop are a few of those, who have so far indicated interest in the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 – some of them are familiar names – and hopefully, the Nigerian people can find from amongst them, that individual, who understands the issues and knows what the problems are, and has a good and clear idea what solutions fit.
Anyim Pius Anyim (PDP, South East)
A former President of the Senate and erstwhile Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim, has had those two huge platforms to showcase himself. An indigene of Ebonyi State, Anyim is one presidential hopeful, who has stayed away from scandals and maintained a lowkey profile. Although since leaving public office, he was completely tucked into his private life until activities ushering in 2023 picked up, he has also explained at every given opportunity that he understands Nigeria and can fix the problems.
Strengths: He has experience and probably still keeps some good contacts after leaving office. He is from the South East, a zone that has consistently alleged marginalisation.
Weaknesses: He seems a bit laidback for the task at hand and lacks colour. His acceptability within his South East is also a subject of debate, and that could challenge his national presence.
Aminu Tambuwal (PDP, North West)
The current two-term Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, was speaker of the House of Representatives from 2011 to 2015. He used his era as speaker to challenge some of the unfavourable policies of the former president Goodluck Jonathan administration, and that made him very popular. Although his governorship has not been anything spectacular, he has continued to leverage more, his days as speaker.
Strengths: Naturally, coming from the core north often confers some advantage, and this is in addition to the fact that he is young and vibrant. He also wields some influence amongst his colleagues, being the chairman of PDP governors’ forum.
Weaknesses: Tambuwal has never been in the cluster of those considered as having the experience and maturity to face the nation’s challenges. Being speaker and governor are not enough, he has yet to acquit himself as a potential presidential material. They are not the same.
Atiku Abubakar (PDP, North East)
A foremost presidential material, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, has always been in the forefront of the charge to lead the country. Indeed, in 2015, many held the view that he was the most prepared with clear ideas what he needed to do and where. The Turaki Adamawa is a household name and has all it takes to change the current narrative.
Strengths: He has the experience, capacity and competence to address Nigeria’s problems. He also knows Nigeria well enough and can balance the fault lines without crossing the lines.
Weaknesses: Atiku has always had this never disappearing corruption tag, which mere explanations have refused to clear off. There are also questions about his age and health. Above all, he is categorised as part of the old order that brought Nigeria to its knees.
Bala Muhammed (PDP, North East)
Governor Bala Mohammed is a first term governor and former Minister of the FCT. Although still in office, there’s a general belief he has not used his opportunities to stand out at these other levels. Age is still on his side and he’s promising. A product of some highwire local politics, which witnessed the alignment of the opposition in the state, Mohammed has yet to find his feet well, even as governor.
Strengths: He is from a part of the north, which thinks it has been marginalised enough and therefore, deserves a shot at the presidency. He also has age on his side and from a party, which might throw its presidential ticket open for all.
Weaknesses: He does not command the kind of national presence required of a man aspiring to the highest office in the land. A man still grappling with the needs of small Bauchi, cannot be handed the intimidating challenges of Nigeria. Nigeria at this time cannot try anyone, who might want to learn on the job. Besides, there’s the speculation that he would rather return as governor than gamble with uncertainty.
Bukola Saraki (PDP, North Central)
Two-terms former governor of Kwara State, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki, was President of the Senate between 2015 and 2019, a platform which availed him an opportunity to sell himself. Unlike many before him, Saraki made the office of the senate president very attractive and also drew attention to the fact that there was so much power and influence in being the nation’s number three citizen. His days as senate president also showed him off as a dogged fighter, who despite the various traps set in his way, triumphed, defeating the corruption label that his opponents had tried to hang on his neck.
Strengths: He has shown capacity, competence and has experience also going for him. He clearly understands the issues and at every turn, has always intervened in the Nigerian project, proffering solutions to those knotty national concerns, even as a floor senate member. He connects more with the youth and very much in tune with global trends. His zone, the north central, has been in the trenches for recognition, having been marginalised for many years. They consider now as their time.
Weaknesses: His state of origin, which is now being seen as a form of strength, politically, is the first factor to count against him. Small Kwara in north central has always been hard to place, either as a northern or southern state, realistically. Besides, coming out at a time the clamour for southern presidency is on high note, is a tough call.
Bola Tinubu (APC, South West)
A political juggernaut by every definition, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, is by all standards, one of the biggest names in the nation’s political lexicon today. From a relatively unknown Bola in 1999 to becoming the national leader of the ruling APC, today, Tinubu is a force to reckon with. Not only has he built an empire, he has made people and raised soldiers across all ages, walks of life and political leanings. Heavily connected and boasting huge war chest that could unsettle any cause, Tinubu is a political samurai, underestimated only at the peril of his opponents. In addition to commanding experience and competence, Tinubu has an enviable foresight for reading the political barometer, near accurately every season. In South West and beyond, he is an idol to many would-be politicians. He is a kingmaker, who now desires to be king.
Strengths: Highly connected. Has experience and capacity. He seems prepared for what he called his life-long ambition to be president of Nigeria. He has the money required to prosecute his election. He has national presence. Understands some of the issues. Has a fatherly demeanor and the patience for the job. If not stopped by the Villa, he could claim the presidency without a fight.
Weaknesses: Tinubu is largely considered corrupt and it’s almost a consensus. He is one man, who is deemed rich, yet, has no known businesses to his name. Even the businesses marked against his name are easily denied, because they are believed to be held in trust. He is also old, sickly and weak. Age and health have taken their tolls and may be unable to stand the demands of the office. His mental alertness has been called to question many times. Also the Buhari albatross hangs on his neck. He and a clique within the APC brought Buhari. It is now almost like a cardinal sin that he brought Buhari. Can Nigeria afford the Alphabetarisation of Nigeria? He has a 60 million dollars private aircraft with no clear means of income; no factory employing people. Where did the money come? He has not been able to explain to the country he is striving to govern. Explaining his source of wealth becomes a big challenge on his road to becoming President of Africa’s most populous nation.
David Umahi (APC, South East)
Outgoing Governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi, is about the only Southeast governor in the APC, who is desirous of succeeding President Buhari. Umahi, whose seat was recently threatened by the judgment of a Federal High Court, which sacked him before it was reversed at the appellate court, is believed to have done relatively well, when compared to some of his colleagues. An engineer by calling, he is one of those, who had openly indicated interest in the job, following after Tinubu.
Strengths: Coming from the South East, the zone has continued to justify why it should be allowed to produce the president in the spirit of equity, fairness and justice. Records have also shown that he is a man of ideas and can champion developments. And, in terms of age, he would pass.
Weaknesses: A recluse by simple definition, Umahi does not really have friends. Apart from compelling meeting of governors, his media exposure says as much. That also presupposes some tribalistic tendencies and definitely not what is needed at a time like this. His contacts are limited and therefore, boasts poor reach.
Dele Momodu (PDP, South South)
One of the most influential celebrity journalists in Nigeria’s modern history, Bashorun Dele Momodu, is having his second outing in the nation’s presidential run. His first outing, which didn’t turn out good, was enough to have discouraged anyone from wanting to serve again, but Momodu’s love for country would not let him look away. Publisher of the prestigious Ovation Magazine, which is sold across the world, has such contacts that only a few politicians can lay claims to. Sound, brilliant, capable and armed with requisite experience, the second coming of this Edo-born journalist and politician, is a welcome development in the scheme of things.
Strengths: Young, experienced, capable and competent, Momodu is a quintessential global citizen, with friends and contacts across the world. His presidency can easily access his contacts in nation’s interest and devote such to development purposes.
Weaknesses: He does not have the kind of money needed to prosecute this kind of election. Politicians, and particularly, owners of Nigeria may not be willing to trust him with power.
Udom Emmanuel (PDP, South South)
The current and outgoing governor of Akwa Ibom State, Udom Emmanuel, is one of the prides of PDP, given his development initiatives in the state, even though taking off was easy, because of the kind of legacy left behind by his predecessor, and Minister of Niger Delta, Senator Godswill Akpabio, who was famous for uncommon transformation. Udom has spent the last eight years, etching his footprints in the sand of time, a legacy of achievements, which has stoked him into wanting to serve at a higher pedestal.
Strengths: He has shown capacity, experience, and maturity in tending to state matters. His ability to manage his predecessor and former benefactor as a major tendency is a plus that cannot be glossed over. Coming from the south is also an additional strength to his rating as a presidential hopeful.
Weaknesses: Managing a relatively small Akwa Ibom is not a template that is applicable to managing Nigeria, because national politics differs significantly from regional ludo games. Besides, he is in a zone and party, where he can easily be muscled in terms of political advantage by the other big guns. He has to up his game, regardless.
Godwin Emefiele (South South)
Although the Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele, is from Delta, a South-south state; he is by providence, standing astride in both the South-south and the South East, thus, making his candidacy appealing to two critical zones that feel entitled to the presidency. The nation’s economy has no doubt, been challenged in different ways, a sector in which Emefiele plays a significant role as the CBN governor; that the nation has not been overwhelmed, however, speaks to his efforts at mitigating those challenges. It was not by accident that the nation snapped out of recession twice to the shock of experts. It was also not sheer happenstance that Covid-19 did not shut down the economy. Some people stood in and plugged it. Kudos to the roles played by Emefiele in these and many respects. No doubt, these also accounted for the growing clamour that he should join the race. While he has yet to declare, Emefiele’s supporters are damn certain he is the right man for the job.
Strengths: A technocrat, whose time may have come, leading Nigeria with experience, and with insecurity linked to economy, he is believed to have the understanding of Nigeria’s economy and issues challenging the country to be able to steer the affairs of state if gets the keys to the Villa. Another major factor going for him, is that he is trusted by the northern establishment who see him as someone they can work with.
Weaknesses: First, he has the political class to contend with given his background. Politicians may not be too comfortable with him. He is from a minority South-south, a state controlled by the opposition. Emefiele lacks political base to command strong loyalty. Being a technocrat is also a weakness for him, as he is not seen by politicians as one of them, even if former President Olusegun Obasanjo was able to weather those storm in 1999
Ibikunle Amosun (APC, South West)
Former governor of Ogun State for eight years and senator representing Ogun central for a second term, Ibikunle Amosun, is one of the few contenders, who is very hands-on, firm and assertive. Progressive with development ideas, Amosun changed the face of Ogun in eight years so much that it might take decades to surpass his records. A grassroots politicians with intimidating machine in the politics of his state, his 2019 experience has not displaced him from the current equation in his state as the number one politician. A very good friend of the president, Amosun boasts the kind of contacts that are hard to link to him, except for close allies. He’s got capacity, competence, experience, ideas and very futuristic.
Strengths: His ideas are always taking into account, the foreseeable future. He is quietly friends with both the north and the south. Unknown to many, he is also friends with so many foreign presidents and never will flaunt them. He is very comfortable and has the wherewithal to prosecute his election, particularly, by pulling his friends up onto the field.
Weaknesses: He is seen as very stubborn, although often times on principle. He has the penchant for disregarding processes and protocols if it would stand in the way of an idea he thought was meant to benefit the people. One of his major support pillars is Buhari and if his 2019 experience was to be factored into consideration, he can as well cancel out Buhari from his support base.
Kayode Fayemi (APC, South West)
Chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum and Governor of Ekiti State, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, has always distinguished himself in many respects. As a quintessential Omoluabi of the Yoruba extraction, he has used his office to prove that there is nothing esoteric about leadership. And, as a politician, who has learnt from his ugly experience, his politics has also been so elevated that, whoever underrates Fayemi now, might be doing so at very costly expense. Think all the boxes: capacity, competence, experience, networking, international contacts, ideas, development, focus, and blending across generations – Fayemi ticks them all. What’s more? A ready-made presidential material.
Strengths: He has learnt national politics so well and upgraded his local politics even more. How he has managed the governors from other parties is a case study. He knows the issues and would put them on the global stage almost effortlessly.
Weaknesses: Coming from a rather small Ekiti, the kind of alignment required to build alliances could be frustrated by other states in the zone in an effort to undo him from clinching the ticket. He does not have the war-chest for the project, although could raise it through friends. Also, surviving the few months to the general election after leaving office is a major counter to his aspiration, as some of the things that currently count in his favour could be lost to being out of office.
Mohammed Hayatu-Deen (PDP, North East)
A former Managing Director of the now defunct FSB International Bank, Mr. Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, recently joined the presidential race for 2023, after declaring for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). An economist, banker and former Chairman of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), Hayatu-Deen started his career working in principal investments and project finance at the Northern Nigeria Development Corporation, later rechristened New Nigeria Development Corporation (NNDC), which at the time was Nigeria’s largest industrial holding company with investments across a range of industries.He rose from there to the position of Group Chief Executive and was responsible for providing leadership, direction, and oversight to 140 subsidiary and associate companies under the group portfolio. His career therefrom blossomed significantly.
Strengths: With a sound background in economics, coupled with a successful career in the banking sector, his experience would certainly come handy in remedying some of the nation’s current economic challenges. He also boasts some maturity that could help on the job, aside coming from Borno, North East, thus enjoying both party and zone advantage.
Weaknesses: Given an exposure largely rooted in the private sector, it comes with its challenges. Contending with political forces, who see such persons as coming to steal what’s theirs is almost certain. His background has also limited his connection in a sense.
Nyesom Wike (PDP, South South)
The controversial Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, has many limitations, especially with respect to his attitudinal disposition, but certainly not in terms of performance. It is almost a consensus that he has worked hard to take Rivers to a different level in terms of infrastructure development. He also understands politics very well, even though his style is crude. He has equally managed to extend his hold beyond the Rivers hemisphere. It is also not for jokes that many call him Mr. Projects.
Strengths: Being governor of an oil rich Rivers is in itself a lot of advantage. It was a Rivers governor in the person of Rotimi Amaechi, who made Buhari’s presidency possible in 2015. Wike has a lot of money and through his money, he has been able to buy loyalties and friends. This also accounts for why his reach transcends Rivers. He also has signature projects, which means he is not just presumed to be rascally; he is also development-focused.
Weaknesses: Wike, without a doubt, lacks the character befitting of the office of the president. In every of his engagements, he throws decorum to the wind and treats his colleagues as if they are subservient. Unmindful of his integrity (if any), Wike is too reckless about his carriage. While he could actually undo many things, because of his money, he hardly can find the requisite support for his aspiration amongst his peers.
Ogbonnaya Onu (APC, South East)
The Minister of Science and Technology, Ogbonnaya Onu, started his political career with an eye on a senate seat in the old Imo State on the platform of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). He also contested for the position of Governor of Abia State in 1991, as candidate of the National Republican Convention and won. He was sworn in as the first Executive Governor of the State in January 1992, and was the first chairman, Conference of Nigerian elected Governors. In 1999, he was the presidential standard bearer of the All People’s Party (APP), but relinquished the position to Olu Falae after a merger of his party with the Alliance for Democracy (AD), who lost to Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP. Ogbonnaya went on to become the National Chairman of the APP in 2010. In 2013, his party successfully merged with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and some members of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) to form the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Strengths: He has come a long way with a lot of experience, maturity, and networking. He is also from the South East, a zone that has been marginalised over time in the scheme of things. He a good ambassador of the Igbo.
Weaknesses: Many believe he is not hands-on and his ideas are not in tune with modern day realities. He might be too laidback for the task ahead. His ideas are believed not to be sound.
Peter Obi (PDP, South East)
Former governor of Anambra State and businessman, Peter Obi, has such ideas about how a state should run and those ideas always resonate with the ordinary people. A vice-presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2019 election, he has moved closer to the presidency than many from the his zone. Although he is wrestling with the zoning ideas like others, he has shown capacity, experience and huge understanding of the issues that are wrong with the nation state.
Strengths: He knows the issues and almost has the solutions off-the-top of his head. He has built friends both in the private and public sectors and is very rich too, even though he embraces a spartan lifestyle.
Weaknesses: With no home-zone support, it’s a tall order to ride roughshod over others to clinch the ticket, much less the presidency. Some of his friends also think he is a pretender and often dismissed him as not bankable.
Rotimi Amaechi (APC, South South)
The Minister of Transport, Rotimi Amaechi, is often described as the “star boy” of the administration, given the revolution going on in the rail sector of the economy as well as the maritime sector. A former governor of Rivers State, Amaechi has a record of performance and discharging every assignment well. It is no wonder that he is constantly stealing the show in this administration through his development initiatives. Although his efforts are being undermined lately by the activities of terrorists, none of those has stifled him from that which he thought would benefit a majority of the people. Thus, exhibiting capacity, experience and competence, he has held the transport ministry for almost eight years and to the awe of his principal and the people in general. From being speaker for eight years, governor for eight years and now minister for almost eight years, there is no question about his experience in governance and development.
Strengths: He has capacity, competence and the exposure to do the job. He is also very hands-on and very much development-focused. He is a good politician, understands the issues, and can network easily. He has friends across all ages, sectors and affiliations and has money to do the election the same way he did Buhari’s. He is also nice, kind and compassionate. Like Emefiele, his candidacy too stands on both the Southeast and the South-south.
Weaknesses: He is stubborn and can be abrasive sometimes. He takes loyalty seriously and when there’s a tinge of alleged mistrust, he could go off, sometimes without double-checking. There is the home-zone disadvantage too, although he seems to be making up for that with his ministerial posting.
Timipre Sylva (APC, South South)
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva, is another South-south presidential hopeful, but from Bayelsa State. A former governor, Sylva has relative executive experience to want to try the presidency of Nigeria. He also has a platform to build a network of friends, locally and internationally, using patronage effectively.
Strengths: He is minister of petroleum and may find it easy to muster the war chest for his campaign. Experience too comes to play for him and capacity is arguable. Also, being from the South is an advantage.
Weaknesses: He is largely drawn away from his colleagues and his network of friends can actually be thrown up for a debate. The petroleum ministry has not been doing well lately and the fact that they are still approbating and reprobating over subsidy removal questions his capacity by extension, even though he is not the principal minister. He too has the home-zone disadvantage.
Yahaya Bello (APC, North Central)
The Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello, is another controversial governor, albeit in the ruling party. Almost eight years in office, Bello is grappling with some of the mundane issues of governance. Failing to apply discretion in some of his choices appears to be the hallmark of his leadership. Not many would forget in a hurry how he almost made a mess of the fight against Covid-19, at a time the world came together to battle the scourge. With unpaid salaries and pensions in the region of billions, which have not been given sufficient attention like his ambition, it’s not difficult to ponder a good mental picture of what his presidency might look like.
Strengths: He is young, energetic and has the capacity to throw money around at the expense of real governance issues.
Weaknesses: Coming from the north attracts a resounding no in APC, after Buhari, another northerner’s eight years. He delights to relish in issues that are lacking in substance. Governance has suffered under his watch and his colleagues just let him spawl further in his folly by strategically avoiding him. Save for those interested in his money, mustering a decent crowd for his ambition is almost impossible.
Yemi Osinbajo (APC, South West)
He is the current vice president of the country and a man that a lot of people, would have gladly agreed should step in after Buhari, since he would have worked with him for eight years. Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, has come of age in politics in just eight years. Indeed, he’s practically graduated from the school of strategic politics. He now knows the game as much as its older actors. Barring any last minute changes, he is billed to declare his interest in the presidency any moment from now. One of his foot soldiers, Kayode Ajulo, hinted at this yesterday, when he shared a post, which read: “On your marks, oh my comrades, what we await and strive for is here. Oh, my comrades, hear the sound; so loud over landscape. Reprieve now appearing; victory is nigh. #PYOIsComing. #FileFunYemi. #RamadanKareem. #PYO23 #ProgressiveLawyers4PYO.”
From the many assignments he has been detailed, he has done well. So far, he has conducted himself so well, and even though he has not said a word, he has communicated his intention to run a long time ago. He has confidence, capacity, exposure and competence. Above all, he carries himself so presidentially and with cerebral demeanor, that he unsettles his traducers.
Strengths: He is from the Southwest and as the current vice-president, he has leveraged a very good use of his office to the disadvantage of other aspirants. He has built a network of friends, contacts and connection across the world. He has shown to understand the issues and always propounds the solutions at any given opportunity.
Weaknesses: First, running against Asiwaju is waiting to count majorly against him in the politics of the zone, even though such sentiment belies logic. But the narrative of a betrayal has been established successfully. Two, most of the friends and contacts he has built are ‘office friends’ and might fizzle out once they perceive that things might not go his way. Osinbajo may have to answer to questions about alleged bigotry as many people have continued to accuse him of giving preference to members of his church, the RCCG, at every turn and populating his office with them. Some politicians accuse him of not being honest and habitually double-faced.
Goodluck Jonathan (PDP, South-South)
Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is a former president, who lost his bid for re-election and handed over to the incumbent in 2015. His political career began in 1998, when he was chosen by the late Diepreye Alaimeyeseigha as his running mate. The Alaimeyeseigha/Jonathan ticket won the election and he became the first civilian deputy governor of Bayelsa State on May 29, 1999. In 2005, he was sworn in as governor after his then boss ran into trouble with the law. In 2007, he won the PDP gubernatorial primary in Bayelsa State and was in the midst of his campaign, when he was nominated as vice presidential candidate to the late Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua and as fate would have it, he became president after Yar’Adua’s demise, following prolonged ill-health. In 2011, he was elected president.
Goodluck Jonathan became President on the PDP platform in his first term. The question on the lips of many now is should he decide to run this time, under which platform will he be running? Will it be under the PDP that gave him his first taste of power or will he switch party to the APC as is being speculated? This remains unclear, although he is currently a member of PDP.
Strengths: He is trusted by the present administration, because of the way he handed over power. He is a democrat and adherent of the rule of law. As president, he promoted pro-people policies, especially, programmes such as the Almajiri schools he built in the North. He is also respected among the African leaders, because of efforts he has made to restore peace on the continent since he left office.
Weaknesses: He is perceived to be a weak leader, who was controlled by women, when he was in power, leading to his electoral loss in 2015. However, it is not clear if
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