Nigeria: SB Morgen Predicts Victory for PDP in Ekiti Guber Election, APC in Osun

Earlier, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state had fixed its primaries for between January 4 and 29, 2022.

As it is, the incumbent, Mr Kayode Fayemi, a member of the APC, who also leads the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF), cannot seek re-election as he had first governed the state between 2010 and 2014.
However, SBM Intelligence, in its report titled: “The Year Ahead , 2022” signed off by its Head of Research, Ikemesit Effiong, said that the fact that Fayemi will not be on the ballot will be a major game-changer.

According to the report, the elections in Osun state and Ekiti state will be the real start of the 2023 elections, with the organisation stating that the APC will claim victory in Osun state, with Governor Gboyega Oyetola likely gunning for a second term next year.
“In Ekiti, the governor will not be on the ballot. We expect the APC to lose Ekiti state to the PDP.
“In Osun state, however, with the incumbent governor on the ballot it will be a close-fought battle due to political infighting in the APC structure in the state. But we expect the APC to just edge it,” SBM said.
It projected that the two main parties in Osun will field candidates that are the direct opposite of the other in terms of the region of origin, with the APC waiting to see who the PDP field before reacting.
SBM pointed out that unlike going into the 2019 elections where the incumbent president was on the ballot, he will not be returning in spite of tepid attempts to moot a third term.

According to the report, defection from the APC is unlikely to be a strategy employed by politicians this time.
“We will therefore not see a rash of defections out of the APC like we did in 2019. Rather there will be defections into the APC, as politicians will conclude that the real battle is winning the APC presidential ticket,” it claimed.
It further said that it expects a rash of corruption arrests and trials in 2022 as political opponents will seek to neutralise rivals, forecasting that the attorney general will be particularly active in pursuing these.
“But we expect a coalition to rise which will ultimately see him out of office before the elections,” SBM added.

The report said that there will be a rejuvenation of the civil society space as the elections galvanise the various groups into action once again and a likely CSO-led protest, ostensibly to demonstrate against socio-economic hardships around inflation and cost of living.
Moreover, SBM Intelligence predicted the release of Nnamdi Kanu before or during the third quarter of next year, as a political compromise will be reached.

According to the group, international sanctions, on the basis of documented massacres, will be instituted against named Nigerian government agents, while the government will lift the ban on Twitter in time for the campaign season to kick off.
“The government will continue to clamp down on press freedoms. At the subnational level, more state governors will come under more pressure as economic failings begin to make more people question the use of state government funds,” it maintained.
On the economy, the report noted that Nigeria’s 5.01 per cent and 4.03 per cent growth rates experienced in Q2 2021 and Q3 2022 signify that the country can outperform the World Bank Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of 1.8 per cent in 2021.

Regarding 2022, SBM stated that it envisaged a strong GDP growth due to several factors, including oil price, oil production, expansion of financial services due to the  licenses issued to the Telcos, and most importantly, an increase in federal government spending due to the approaching election year.
It said: “We project a 2.0 per cent to 2.5 per cent growth rate for the full year 2022.”

“We forecast that oil prices will hover around $75-$85 per barrel for much of 2022 despite continued disruption of economic activities due to COVID-19. The cautious OPEC+ supply increase and faster-than-expected inventory drawdown will be the major factors for oil price strength.

“Nigeria’s public debt and debt service ratio will continue to increase as the country will fail to meet its revenue targets for 2021 and 2022. To bridge the gap, the federal government will continue on its borrowing binge.”

It predicted that the naira will face various pull forces during the year, making  foreign currency borrowing and increased crude oil revenues to keep the foreign reserves above $35 billion  and giving the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) some ammunition to defend the naira.

“However, increased demand from politicians mopping up dollars ahead of the elections, foreign investors seeking to repatriate their funds ahead of the elections, and manufacturers seeking to import materials will be the main demand drivers. Thus, we expect some devaluation of the official window to about $1/₦450,” SBM predicted.

SBM stressed that it expects that states and the federal government will reach a political settlement of the Value Added Tax (VAT) impasse that will see the states receive more of what they generate, but that the federal government will continue to collect.

“Inflation growth rate should continue to drop through Q1 2021. However, high base effect, election spending, food inflation from insecurity and further tightening of imports by the CBN will cause inflation growth rate to begin to rise again by Q3.

“The expected fuel subsidy replacement with a direct transfer of N5,000 monthly to subsidise the poor on transport is unlikely to take off as Nigeria will be unable to afford this expense in its current fiscal trajectory,” the report noted.

On security, it pointed out that there will be increased organising by groups into armed vigilante groups to defend themselves from bandit, pastoralist and kidnapping attacks, adding that the election year will see the flow of small arms into these groups, increasing clashes across the country.

“Terrorists will begin to strike more frequently in the bigger urban centres in the north, including the Federal Capital, Abuja as an influx of hardened fighters from neighbouring Sahel countries such as Burkina Faso and Mali will swell the numbers of terrorists in the region.

“As these terrorists become established in the rural ungoverned spaces with the semblance of their own versions of a state, controlling dispensation of justice, extracting taxation and supervising trade and agriculture, they will fight brutal internal battles to consolidate control and these groups will then be emboldened to take on bigger targets,” it said.