Nigeria Reaches 1.51m bpd Oil Output, Meeting OPEC Quota After Four Years of Shortfalls

After over four years of consistently failing to achieve the quota allocated to it by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria finally met the target in its December 2024 oil production circle, a THISDAY review of a survey by Bloomberg showed on Monday.

Nigeria’s production increased by 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.51 million a day, reaching a four-year high, according to the survey. The current OPEC crude oil volume expected from Nigeria is 1.5 million bpd.

The survey results became public as the official OPEC production data as well as those of the upstream regulator in Nigeria, the  Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), were still being awaited.

After years of failing to meet its circa 1.8 million bpd, OPEC had reduced Nigeria’s quota in 2023 to 1.5 million bpd, with the country still unable to hit the target since then.

In November last year, Nigeria came short of achieving the quota, with data from NUPRC showing that the country produced 1.485 million bpd, about 99 per cent of the expected OPEC output. It was, on the average, Nigeria’s highest volume of crude oil, excluding condensates drilled last year.

In January 2024, which hitherto had the highest crude oil production, Nigeria’s oil output was 1.42 million bpd.

In February of the same year, Nigeria recorded 1.32 million bpd; 1.23 million bpd in March; 1.28 million bpd in April; 1.25 million bpd in May; and 1.27 million bpd in June.

In July, the country’s OPEC oil production was 1.3 million bpd; in August, it was 1.35 million bpd; 1.32 million bpd in September; 1.33 million bpd in October, and then 1.485 million bpd in November, excluding condensate.

Nigeria had blamed its inability to meet the quota on massive oil theft in the Niger Delta, waning investment in the sector, outright sabotage, as well as deteriorating infrastructure.

According to the Bloomberg survey, Libya extended its recovery from a recent political crisis, adding 40,000 bpd to 1.23 million a day, the highest level in more than a decade.

It further showed that OPEC’s crude production dipped last month, as the United Arab Emirates stepped up implementation of supply cutbacks aimed at buoying global oil markets.

In all, output from OPEC fell by 120,000 bpd to 27.05 million a day, with the UAE accounting for most of the drop, according to the survey. Modest gains in Libya and Nigeria were offset by similar-sized reductions in Iran and Kuwait, the data showed.

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, on Monday, listed some of the achievements of the Bola Tinubu administration in the oil sector, stressing that under the current government, crude output has been raised from one million bpd to 1.8 million bpd, including condensate.

Lokpobiri, on his X handle, said on assumption of office, Tinubu directed that the volume of crude produced by Nigeria must be increased, and maintained that the order was the foundation upon which the achievements by the ministry were built.

The minister said within the first 18 months of the Tinubu administration, the government had been able to attract foreign investments and ensure peace in oil-producing Niger Delta communities.

Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo), a subsidiary of Shell Plc, recently announced a $5 billion Final Investment Decision (FID) on Bonga North, a deep-water project off the coast of Nigeria.

Bonga North will be a subsea tie-back to the Shell-operated Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) facility, which Shell operates with a 55 per cent interest.

The Bonga North project involves drilling, completing, and starting up 16 wells, including eight production and eight water injection wells, modifications to the existing Bonga Main FPSO and the installation of new subsea hardware tied back to the FPSO.

The project, a major one for Nigeria, will sustain oil and gas production at the Bonga facility, with Bonga North currently having an estimated recoverable resource volume of more than 300 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and expected to reach a peak production of 110,000 barrels of oil a day, with first oil anticipated by the end of the decade.

In addition, the minister stated that under the Tinubu government, Nigeria won the bid to host the African Energy Bank (AEB), the first bank on the continent wholly devoted to the promotion of investments in the energy sector.

The bank with a $5 billion initial capital, is expected to take off in the last week of January.

Lokpobiri stated, “With the presidential directive to ramp up oil production to a sustainable level, the journey of transformation in our oil sector began. This visionary directive by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as broad as it was, became the cornerstone of my commitment and that of my team.

“We embraced it wholeheartedly, engaging stakeholders both domestically and internationally to build synergy and foster partnerships. Through these efforts, we successfully attracted significant investments and strengthened institutional frameworks, driving the remarkable transformation we see today in the sector.

“From the production level of one million bpd, when we began, we have boosted output to 1.8 million bpd, inclusive of condensates, and continue to aspire for even greater heights.

“Our achievements include attracting foreign investment decisions, winning the bid to host the Africa Energy Bank, sustaining peace across host communities through robust community engagements, and fully deregulating the downstream sector, ensuring constant availability of petroleum products.”

The minister stated that the hindrances to investments in the oil sector, which hitherto scared investors from putting their money in the industry, had been removed, making operations in the country’s oil sector seamless.

He stated, “We have also eliminated bureaucratic bottlenecks in licensing, facilitated capacity building for indigenous players, and introduced numerous reforms too extensive to list.

“Reflecting on this journey, it is evident we have made remarkable strides. From where we started to where we are now, the progress is undeniable. With these accomplishments, the future promises even greater growth and development for the benefit of Nigerians.”

Emmanuel Addeh

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