African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned that Nigeria, Ethiopia, Angola and Kenya risked social unrest owing to rising prices of fuel and other commodities.
AfDB, in its macroeconomic performance and outlook report for 2024, projected the continent’s economy to grow higher than the 3.2 per cent recorded in 2023.
It further warned that internal conflicts could arise from an increase in energy and commodity prices occasioned by currency depreciation or subsidy removal, referencing Nigeria, Angola, Kenya and Ethiopia, where energy subsidies were removed.
AfDB stated, “Internal conflicts and violence could also result from rising prices for fuel and other commodities due to weaker domestic currencies and reforms.
“For instance, the removal of fuel subsidies in Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria and the resulting social costs has led to social unrest driven by opposition to government policy.”
The bank also said the increase in geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, coupled with the El Nino phenomenon, could trigger supply chain disruptions, which could exacerbate energy and food inflation across the world, with Africa more vulnerable to these shocks.
AfDB further warned that regional conflicts and political instability occasioned by disruptions in constitutional governments could have deleterious economic costs, with resources meant for development and social support channelled into security and defence.
It cautioned that unconstitutional takeover of government might lead to sanctions, with negative implications for the economy.
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