Global Affairs analyst, Victor Okhai has urged ECOWAS to count the cost of starting a war before considering to deploy forces to Niger.
Okhai said this in an interview on ARISENEWS on Monday, while speaking on the plan of ECOWAS to deploy the military if dialogue with Niger coup leader fails.
He said “It is important to count the cost before you even make an attempt.
“What is at stake here is the ego of the people involved. Every war can be ended with a dialogue from the beginning. There are implications. When the leaders let their egos get involved, you implicate the lives of innocent people, soldiers will go and die because your ego is involved.”
He said that the move would be a great disadvantage on the part of the ECOWAS, stating that Bazoum would be the first casualty of the outcome.
“The Nigeriens, their negotiators did a very smart thing. First of all, they had a strong card. They held the president. They didn’t kill him. So, they have a bargaining chip and a very good one at that. They made sure that he is kept and if anything happens, he will be the first casualty.
“Would ECOWAS want that? Is that the kind of victory they want to achieve? At the end of the day, what that would mean is, if you succeed in taking over and Bazoum is dead, what have you achieved?
“The people from the ECOWAS side are clearly not as smart as the people on the other side. Their negotiators are not as smart as the negotiators on this other side. They cannot attack, if they attempt to do that, they will lose more and the price for the subregion would be too expensive.” He said
The analyst also noted that Nigeria, has been affected heavily by the coup and would not be exempted from the consequences of the war that would break out as a result.
“The seven states borders have been closed. The trades that have existed for centuries have been affected. You know these are people who have been living among themselves, trading across borders.
“So, you find out that the implosion will start from the anti-coup ECOWAS countries. At the end of the day, you will be seeing both the conventional and non-conventional wars.” He said
He also stated that this would be the perfect time for the African Union to intervene in the matter.
“If asked who should intervene right now, I would say it’s the AU. AU has been quiet all this while. They are the bigger brother. “ he said
ECOWAS rejected Junta 3 years Transition Plan. This followed after the meeting between the ECOWAS delegates and the Niger coup leader.
The transition plan comes after ECOWAS defense chiefs agreed to plan for a possible military intervention in Niger if dialogue fails.
The Niger Military leader, on their part, said they are open to dialogues however ready to defend the country if ECOWAS deploys their forces.
Chioma Kalu
Follow us on:
