An analysis of major economic indicators in the past one year by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) showed that Tinubu’s first year in office was characterised by rising public debt, soaring inflation and interest rates, weakened Naira and declining performance of the manufacturing, agriculture and telecom sectors.
The LCCI in its “Scorecard for the Tinubu Administration After One Year,” stated that the economy has been in an adjustment mode “with several variables like stubborn inflation, persistent weakening of the Naira, supply chain disruption driven by insecurity, and weak production base, defining the outlook at any given time.”
Director General of LCCI, Dr. Chinyere Almona, said while policy choices had been liberal on the sides of the monetary and fiscal authorities, expected outcomes had not been recorded yet.
Almona said, “The fight against inflation has not been successful, as the prices of goods keep an upward trend, with the inflation rate rising from 22.22 percent in April 2023 to 33.69 percent in April 2024, recording more than a 10 percent leap in 12 months.”
She added, “Nigeria’s debt stock was N97.34 trillion ($108.22 billion) at the end of 2023, compared to N87.38 trillion ($113.42 billion) at the end of June 2023. This represents an increase of about N10 trillion. The total public debt stock increase is reflected in domestic and external debt.”
Commenting on the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the manufacturing sector since the inception of Tinubu’s administration, the LCCI stated that the manufacturing sector experienced fluctuations in its growth rates throughout the quarters of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, reflecting both challenges and opportunities.
According to the chamber, “The first quarter of 2024 presented some challenges, with nominal GDP growth slowing to 8.21 percent year-on-year. Quarter-on-quarter growth was negative at -17.67 percent, reflecting a contraction. Despite this, the sector’s contribution to nominal GDP remained substantial at 14.79 percent.”
It advised the government “to fix the forex crises, adopt a lower exchange rate for import duties on imported raw materials for manufacturing, offer manufacturers concessionary interest rates in the face of shrinking credit to the private sector, and ensure the policy environment is stable and predictable” in order to buoy the fortunes of the manufacturing sector.
It further stated that in the first year of Tinubu’s administration, the agriculture sector was impacted mainly by insecurity, fuel subsidy removal, and consistent exchange rate depreciation, which increased the cost of fertiliser and other input costs.
Olawale Ajimotokan, Chuks Okocha, Deji Elumoye, Sunday Aborisade, Juliet Akoje and Dike Onwuamaeze
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