Kelvin Emmanuel, an energy expert and the chief executive officer of Dairy Hills, warns that Nigerians’ emotional attachment to the country’s ailing refineries has been a significant barrier to meaningful reform.
In an interview with ARISE NEWS on Friday, Emmanuel described the current state of refineries, referring to the Warri refinery, as “moribund,” explaining that despite efforts to revive these facilities, they are far from operational.
Emmanuel remarked, “Nigerians are too emotionally attached. They are dead. They are moribund.
“The insistence on those refineries must work has been the basis to which some people have used it as a conduit to propagate acts that are not explainable.”
He noted that the Warri refinery cannot produce petrol, producing only SRN (Straight Run Naphta), and cannot produce premium motor spirit (PMS), essential for the country’s fuel needs. Furthermore, he said that the refinery’s infrastructure is severely compromised, with a crucial 46km pipeline, which was intended to transport crude oil from Escravos to Warri, having been vandalised in 2016. Despite the damage, the subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) responsible for pipeline operations has yet to provide an update on its condition.
He stated, “It is also important to note that that same trunkline is what provides feed or the loop for you to take crude oil from Warri all the way to Northern Edo state, Auchi to Lokoja to Suleja in Niger state, then to Kaduna.
“NNPC says that they are expecting Kaduna to also come on stream, so the question is how are they going to take crude oil, for example, when Kaduna comes on stream?”
Out of the several refineries across Nigeria, he stated that the Dangote refinery, with its capacity to process 500,000 barrels per day, remains the only one to have successfully achieved a positive cracking margin and to produce PMS at scale.
Emmanuel’s comments come amid Nigeria’s ongoing push to revitalise its oil sector. The Nigerian government recently celebrated the reopening of the Warri refinery, which was approved for rehabilitation in 2021 with a significant budget of $897 million. President Bola Tinubu hailed the re-opening as a major achievement, giving hope to Nigerians that the refinery will soon resume full operations. This, however, contrasts with the grim assessment of experts like Emmanuel.
The Warri and Kaduna refineries are part of a broader effort by the government, which in 2021 approved a total of $1.48 billion for their rehabilitation. Despite these investments, however, Emmanuel believes the real issue lies with the management of the NNPC, which remains at the heart of Nigeria’s oil economy.
He stated, “The number one cash cow of the federal government of Nigeria for revenue is in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, and I’m calling on Mr President to unbundle NNPC, change the management and board of NNPC.
“That is his key to ensuring that he raises revenue from government-owned enterprises to finance the budget.”
Emmanuel also expressed concerns about the national budget, which President Tinubu presented to the National Assembly for the 2025 fiscal year. He stated that while the government projects a significant increase in oil revenues, with a target of 19 trillion naira from oil—up from 4 trillion naira the previous year— he finds this figure unrealistic, particularly given the current state of the country’s oil infrastructure. He explained that double-digit budget deficits would leave the president with no choice but to either fall short of expectations or rely on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s ‘ways and means’ to secure funding.
Another pressing issue, according to Emmanuel, is the country’s foreign exchange reserves, which are not sufficient to meet the needs of the economy. Nigeria, he says, must prioritise stabilising the currency and reducing inflation.
“The president says that the national assembly is projecting 15% for inflation in 2025. It’s so unrealistic. It’s such a fantasy,” he added, urging the president to focus on restructuring the NNPC to ensure the country’s economic stability.
Frances Ibiefo
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