Japan’s Ruling Coalition Loses Majority in Election Amid Scandal Fallout

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition, in Japan’s recent parliamentary election, suffered a significant setback, losing its majority in the 465-seat lower house, signalling public backlash over ongoing financial scandals within the government.

While Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) retains its dominant status in parliament and a change of government is not anticipated, the election results introduce political instability. Without a majority, Ishiba may be compelled to seek a third coalition partner to pass key legislation, though his coalition retains a majority in the upper house.

According to Japanese media, the LDP and its junior partner Komeito secured only 215 seats, a steep drop from the previous 279-seat majority- its worst result since losing power in 2009. Ishiba, who assumed office on 1 October and called for this election to bolster support after his predecessor Fumio Kishida’s failure to mitigate public anger over the LDP’s scandals, acknowledged the results as “extremely severe” and vowed to “reflect” on the message from voters.

The opposition saw considerable gains, with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), led by Yoshihiko Noda, increasing its seats from 98 to 148. Noda, calling the election a unique opportunity for government change, seeks to form a coalition with other opposition groups, although challenges remain in uniting parties with differing agendas.

Ishiba faces further challenges with potential coalition partners. The Democratic Party of the People (DPP) has shown openness to a partial alliance, while the conservative Japan Innovation Party, which lost seats, expressed reluctance. Additionally, Ishiba may contend with dissent within his party, including from lawmakers associated with former leader Shinzo Abe, who Ishiba distanced himself from in an attempt to rebuild public trust.

Political analysts suggest that Ishiba’s weakened position and voter discontent over the recent scandal could result in shorter prime ministerial terms, with Ishiba potentially serving until the passage of critical budgetary measures in December. To regain public confidence, experts recommend that Ishiba enact substantial reforms to address fairness and privilege concerns, which have fuelled public discontent.

Over 1,300 candidates, including a record 314 women, contested the election. Key LDP veterans and Komeito’s new leader, Keiichi Ishii, lost their seats, further complicating Ishiba’s efforts to stabilise his government.

Despite CDPJ’s success, experts doubt its potential to govern, citing policy limitations that could lead to instability if the opposition assumed power. Ishiba, meanwhile, aims to strengthen the rural economy, address Japan’s low birth rate, and reinforce national defence, though his Cabinet’s traditionalist composition has faced criticism for failing to meet public expectations.

Frances Ibiefo

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