Concerns over oil supply have escalated following Israel’s warning to target Iran’s oil production infrastructure, which includes gas and oil rigs, refineries, and storage facilities.
This development came as Iran remained one of the world’s top 10 oil producers, generating approximately 3.277 million barrels per day in August, according to the latest report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
In response to these heightened tensions, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached $72.13 per barrel during Wednesday morning trading, while London’s Brent Crude Oil Futures for December delivery climbed to $75.74 per barrel.
During Tuesday’s U.S. trading session, international oil prices surged by over 5%, hitting an intraday high before retreating as market sentiment stabilised.
President of SVB Energy International, Sara Vakhshouri, commented on the situation, stating, “Energy facilities and critical infrastructures could be the other target.
Looking at where the prices will go, definitely it depends on where the destruction would be and how much oil is going to be taken off the market.”
She added, “But historically, we have seen that geopolitical factors, if the impact is not in a larger scale and could be mitigated, is not huge.”
Amid these geopolitical tensions, international oil prices are also grappling with pressures from oversupply and weak demand.
Major Wall Street investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have revised their long-term oil price forecasts downward, with Citigroup projecting that prices could drop to around $60 per barrel by 2025.
The backdrop of these market movements includes recent hostilities, as Iran retaliated against the assassination of its allies in Iran and Lebanon by Israel, launching a series of missiles directed at Israeli military facilities.
Reports from Israeli media indicate that the military censor has restricted details about the exact locations of these missile impacts.
As the situation unfolds, market participants are closely monitoring developments, weighing the potential implications for oil supply and prices in the coming months.
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