The Palestinian militant group Hamas is expected to appoint a new political leader from outside Gaza following the death of Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by Israeli forces in a gunbattle on Wednesday, according to experts.
His brother, Mohammad Sinwar, is anticipated to take on a more significant role in directing the group’s military operations against Israel in the territory.
Hamas’s leadership deliberations must balance the interests of its main backer, Iran, with those of Qatar, the Gulf Arab state where most candidates for the leadership position currently reside.
Sinwar, who orchestrated the 7 October 2023 attack that sparked the ongoing Gaza war, is the second top leader Hamas has lost in less than three months, following the assassination of former chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran in July, likely at the hands of Israel.
With Sinwar’s death, the military and political leadership roles within Hamas may be separated, contrasting with Sinwar’s approach of consolidating power. The Islamist group has endured significant losses due to relentless Israeli attacks, which have resulted in the deaths of thousands of its fighters and the elimination of numerous senior leaders.
Khalil Al-Hayya, Sinwar’s deputy and a potential successor, issued a defiant statement on Friday, asserting that Israeli hostages would not be released until Israeli forces withdrew from Gaza and the conflict came to an end.
Hamas has historically demonstrated an ability to swiftly and effectively replace its leaders; the Shura Council, responsible for naming a new chief, includes representation from Hamas members across Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and the Palestinian diaspora.
Alongside Al-Hayya, other leading candidates for the position include Khaled Meshaal, the former leader of Hamas, and Mohammad Darwish, who currently chairs the Shura Council. Hamas will need to communicate its decision to Qatar and other regional players involved in the ongoing, albeit fruitless, ceasefire negotiations.
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