Fears of Ceasefire Collapse in Lebanon Amid Deadly Violence

Southern Lebanon experienced a deadly resurgence of violence late Monday night, sparking concerns over the stability of a fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah.

Lebanese health authorities reported ten fatalities after Israeli airstrikes, marking the most extensive wave of attacks since the ceasefire was brokered last week.

The Israeli military claimed the strikes targeted Hezbollah fighters, launchers, and infrastructure, following the group’s mortar attack earlier in the day. Hezbollah had fired two mortars at an Israeli army base near the disputed Mount Dov/Shebaa Farms area, citing “repeated violations” by Israel as the provocation. The attack caused no reported casualties.

The current ceasefire, negotiated by the US and France, aims to end 13 months of conflict that erupted in October 2023. Hezbollah began hostilities by firing rockets into northern Israel in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, a day after Hamas’s deadly assault on southern Israel. The ensuing conflict displaced over a million people in Lebanon and killed more than 3,960, mostly civilians. Israel reported 127 fatalities, including 80 soldiers.

As part of the agreement, Hezbollah has 60 days to withdraw from areas south of the Litani River, while Israeli forces must simultaneously retreat. The Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers are to assume control of the region. Despite these terms, tensions persist, with both sides accusing the other of violations.

Lebanese authorities have accused Israel of over 54 breaches of the ceasefire, including airstrikes and attacks on civilians. Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri labeled Israel’s actions as “flagrant violations” of the agreement and called for accountability from the international monitoring committee.

Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, reaffirmed his commitment to enforcing the ceasefire but warned of retaliation for any Hezbollah provocations. He emphasized that Hezbollah’s presence south of the Litani River was itself a breach of the agreement.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot urged all parties to respect the ceasefire, while US officials highlighted that the frequency of Israeli strikes had significantly decreased but stressed the need for further reductions.

Monday’s airstrikes targeted 11 locations in southern Lebanon, including Haris and Tallousseh, where six and four fatalities were reported, respectively. Additional Israeli strikes killed two people earlier in the day, including a Lebanese State Security agent.

The Israeli military has justified its actions as responses to threats from Hezbollah, while the group insists its mortar attack was a defensive warning.

A Fragile Path Forward

While the US and France describe the ceasefire as “largely holding,” the continuing violence highlights the precariousness of peace in the region. Both sides appear committed to enforcing their terms of the agreement, but mutual distrust and accusations risk reigniting broader hostilities.

Observers warn that without swift diplomatic intervention and strict adherence to the ceasefire, the region could spiral back into conflict, with devastating consequences for both nations.

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