As climate negotiators scrambled to put together a last-minute deal in Baku, it is clear that a US-shaped void loomed large over the summit. President-elect Trump is set to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement akin to his first term, meaning other global players must pick up the slack and ensure major goals are met.
The contested eleventh-hour Baku deal involves wealthier nations committing $300bn a year to help poorer nations fight climate change. It is a deal that has come under immense scrutiny from the developing world as it falls far short of the $1tn needed annually.
Azerbaijan has had to contend with a general perception that COP29 represented more of a holding summit before COP30 in Brazil, and one which followed a groundbreaking consensus reached in Dubai which, despite regional unrest, was the most well attended climate summit of all time. By comparison, numerous world leaders opted to give this year’s summit a pass.
When exploring likely future global climate leadership, commentators have been quick to conclude that Beijing has the most to gain. This, however, ignores the fact that China’s economy is struggling with unemployment, excessive local government debt and weak demand, not to mention potential incoming tariffs courtesy of the US.
Looking West, Europe may hold the answer.
EU member states have legally committed to tackling climate change, targeting neutrality by 2050. This target is in itself insufficient to reach major climate goals, but is more feasible than others.
Europe, however, continues to deal with ongoing war in Ukraine and the rise of right-wing nationalism which threatens to undermine climate goals. EU member states will no doubt have a major climate role to play, but are otherwise occupied with wider geopolitical concerns.
The Global South has long needed a voice for its own issues. It contributes the least to climate change and yet suffers the most. Africa, a continent I know very well, continues to be worst hit.
In steps the UAE which has positioned itself as a voice of the Global South and a rising global power able to bridge divides and seek consensus. It is a member of the BRICS grouping, plays a major role in G20 discussions and maintains close ties with all major global powers.
Despite being a leading member of OPEC, the UAE has shown its willingness to step in and lead the charge for climate financing, bringing together major players from all sectors.
COP28 saw the establishment of a loss and damage fund to support vulnerable nations which the hosts immediately pledged $100m to.
The Dubai Consensus, despite much fanfare around the UAE’s hosting of the summit owing to its fossil fuel credentials, proved that Abu Dhabi is able to act as an essential bridge between East and West, North and South.
It is this ability that is needed now more than ever in a world as fragmented as ours.
Climate financing remains below the levels needed to reach the Paris targets set back almost a decade ago. This is an area the UAE has continued to prove itself, pledging significant amounts across regions which need it the most.
Abu Dhabi plans to invest up to $54.5bn by 2030 to meet its own energy target of Net Zero emissions by 2050. It also announced a $30bn commitment to a newly created private investment fund, ALTÉRRA, which aims to mobilise $250bn by 2030 in climate financing.
Looking specifically at Africa, shortly before COP28 last year, the UAE pledged over $4.5bn of private, public and development capital to help finance African nations’ climate projects. This comes in addition to other major clean energy partnerships including the 2022 US/UAE PACE agreement which aims to mobilise $100bn in financing, investment and other support to deploy 100 gigawatts of clean energy by 2035.
To date, the UAE has invested over $50bn in renewable energy projects across 70 countries including 27 island nations, the greatest voices of opposition to the financing agreement reached in Baku. Its hosting of COP28 raised an immediate $85bn in new financial commitments for climate action and most importantly resulted in a signed declaration to transition away from fossil fuels in order to reach the Paris goals.
Climate change needs bold, decisive leadership. With the election of President Trump and pre-existing major issues threatening economic growth including continued war in Ukraine and a stagnating Chinese economy, the world needs a new leader to step up and fill this void.
The UAE’s unique ability to act as a bridge between those with competing interests, combined with its existing climate credentials positions it as a viable contender to assume the role of the US.Peter Burdin is the BBC’s former Africa Bureau Chief. He has thirty-five years’ experience as a senior editorial leader in the BBC’s International News operation and has worked extensively in Africa, the Middle East, Europe, the Indian sub-continent and Asia from where he has covered numerous major international news stories.
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