China has announced a 7.2% increase in its defence spending for the year, further bolstering a military budget that has more than doubled during Xi Jinping’s tenure as President.
The move aligns with last year’s rate and surpasses the government’s economic growth forecast.
Premier Li Qiang, in delivering the budget figures at the National People’s Congress (NPC), removed the mention of “peaceful reunification” in the government work report, emphasizing China’s stance on Taiwan. Tensions over Taiwan have escalated, prompting China to demonstrate a commitment to strengthening its military capabilities.
Despite economic challenges, China’s focus on Taiwan remains a key factor in its increased defence spending. Li Mingjiang, a defence scholar at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted, “China is showing that in the coming decade it wants to grow its military to the point where it is prepared to win a war if it has no choice but to fight one.”
Since Xi Jinping assumed the presidency, the defence budget has surged from 720 billion yuan in 2013 to 1.67 trillion yuan ($230.60 billion) this year. The rise in military spending consistently outpaces the annual domestic economic growth target. The 2024 growth target is around 5%, similar to the previous year, as indicated in the government work report.
China’s increased defence budget, closely monitored by neighbouring countries and the United States, has raised concerns about Beijing’s strategic intentions. Based on data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), this marks the 30th consecutive year of Chinese defence spending increases.
James Char, a security scholar at RSIS, highlighted that despite the defence budget outpacing GDP growth, it has remained around 1.3% of overall GDP in the last decade, posing no strain on national coffers. The purchase of new equipment, aiming to meet Xi’s goal of full modernisation by 2035, is expected to be a significant allocation in the budget.
Tighter resource management is now a priority for military leadership following personnel purges related to weapons procurement. The Central Military Commission ordered a “clean-up” of the procurement bidding process last July and has yet to announce the results.
Notably, at least nine generals involved in procurement have been stripped of their titles as parliamentarians, indicating potential legal charges.
Former defence ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe have also gone missing without explanation, often a sign of being under investigation in China. Li, in charge of military procurement from 2017 to 2022, is no longer a delegate, according to parliament spokesman Lou Qinjian.
In the government work report, China reiterated its call for “reunification” with Taiwan, removing the descriptor “peaceful.” While not the first time China has omitted “peaceful,” the change in language is closely observed for signs of a more assertive stance.
Taiwan’s defence ministry and Mainland Affairs Council have not yet responded to requests for comment, but the island’s defence minister announced increased missile drills this year.
Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist and non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, commented on the language shift regarding Taiwan, noting that it has “moderately hardened.” He suggested that Beijing is seeking a balance between projecting toughness on Taiwan and stabilising relations with Taiwan’s international friends.
Following the election victory of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te, China’s Communist Party’s fourth-ranked leader, Wang Huning, declared at a high-level Taiwan policy meeting that China would “resolutely combat” any efforts towards Taiwan independence this year. Previous statements only vowed to “resolutely oppose” Taiwan independence.
Ozioma Samuel-Ugwuezi
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