China’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, with deaths surpassing births despite a slight increase in birth rates. Experts warn that this demographic shift, driven by entrenched structural issues, will worsen in the coming years, posing significant economic and social challenges.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported a population drop of 1.39 million, bringing the total to 1.408 billion in 2024, down from 1.409 billion in 2023. Although births increased to 9.54 million from 9.02 million, deaths remained higher at 10.93 million.
This decline reinforces concerns about the future of the world’s second-largest economy. A shrinking workforce and consumer base, coupled with rising costs for elderly care and retirement benefits, are likely to strain already indebted local governments.
China’s birth rate rose to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024, up from 6.39 in 2023, but experts anticipate a reversal in 2025 due to structural issues. Yun Zhou, a sociology professor at the University of Michigan, noted, “Without fundamental structural transformations – from enhancing the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination – the trend of population decline cannot be reversed.”
The one-child policy (1980–2015) and rapid urbanisation have contributed to declining birth rates. Urban living has made child-rearing costlier, while job insecurity, high education costs, and gender discrimination deter many from starting families.
Demographers also attribute the slight birth rebound in 2024 to a 12.4% rise in marriages, many delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the number of marriages is expected to decline in 2025, further impacting birth rates.
Authorities introduced measures in 2024 to address the crisis. These include urging universities to promote positive attitudes toward marriage and family and encouraging local governments to support childbearing. Despite these efforts, the number of women of reproductive age (15-49) is projected to fall by over two-thirds by the year 2100, while the retirement-age population (60 and over) is expected to reach 400 million by 2035, up from 280 million in 2024.
China’s urban population grew by 10.83 million to 943.3 million in 2024, while rural residents declined to 464.78 million. Meanwhile, 22% of the population, or 310.31 million people, were aged 60 or older, up from 296.97 million in 2023.
With the state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences warning that the pension system could deplete by 2035, China faces mounting pressure to reform its social and economic systems. Without transformative action, the challenges posed by a declining and aging population may intensify, impacting the country’s long-term development and global standing.
Melissa Enoch
Follow us on:
