Analysis: Why Buhari Will Sign Amended Electoral Bill Before Dec. 19

Although under intense pressure from different quarters, particularly governors elected on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), President Muhammadu Buhari, might have resolved to sign the amended Electoral Bill, forwarded to him by the National Assembly on November 19.

Sources within the presidency told THISDAY that the delay had been largely due to pressure on Buhari from governors, who were uncomfortable with the idea of direct primaries and wanted the clause expunged from the amended law.

But the president, the source said, was convinced by the new electoral bill as proposed and the need to ensure participatory democracy, especially, having promised to leave a legacy of credible electoral system, of which the law is critical.

According to the source, who preferred anonymity, “You also need to understand the process, because there is a process, or if you like, protocol to these things. Remember that immediately the bill was forwarded to the president by the National Assembly, the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, wrote to the president and advised against it.

“It was after this that the governors took up the campaign and asked for the aspect of direct primaries to be yanked off, citing many reasons that could not fly in the face of logic. But if the president was going to listen to his AGF or give in to the pressure by the governors, the process is that he would have instructed the AGF to draft a letter of response back to the National Assembly.

“Thus, if a process like that has been triggered, then you would have known that the president was not going to sign it, following the same channel of communication and as advised by his AGF. But since it was sent to him, the president had just kept quiet. Knowing that signing is just about a small ceremony and solely the call of the president, so, he could choose to delay it and just sign whenever he wants for as long as it is before the deadline.”

Citing another reason why Buhari would sign the bill into law, the presidency source said the National Assembly was going on recess this Thursday, December 16. If there was going to be any communication rejecting the bill, he would have triggered the process before they embark on their recess, as they wouldn’t be back until later in January, and by which time, the process for the Ekiti State governorship election would have begun.

The source explained, “It belies logic that the president would write to the National Assembly after they had proceeded on recess. Therefore, if he is not writing them between now and Thursday, when they would go on recess, then, it is a deal. He will sign it, since the signing ceremony is his personal business.”

However, listing another equally important reason why Buhari would sign the bill before the deadline, which is Sunday, December 19, the source said, apart from the fact that the diplomatic community was also mounting pressure on the president, his commitment to ensuring a free, fair and credible election was another thing he could not renege on.

The source explained that at a recent virtual Summit for democracy organised by the United States President, Joe Biden, Buhari in his speech reiterated his commitment to leaving behind a lasting legacy of credible poll for the nation’s democratic development, and this, he added, the diplomatic community would hold him to.

Buhari’s address stated: “I am proud to state that Nigeria has had over two decades of uninterrupted democratic governance and has unequivocally remained committed to upholding the core values and principles of democracy. Since assuming office in 2015, we have been able to introduce mechanisms to ensure free, fair and credible elections.

“We have strengthened our key anti-corruption agencies in collaboration with international partners and have undertaken several anti-corruption measures and initiatives. However, despite our democratic achievements, Nigeria continues to face the challenge of insecurity, which poses a threat to our democracy. We therefore call on global partners to support our efforts in tackling insurgency and terrorism.

“As we countdown to our next general elections in 2023, we remain committed to putting in place and strengthening all necessary mechanisms to ensure that Nigeria will not only record another peaceful transfer of power to an elected democratic government, but will also ensure that the elections are conducted in a free, fair and transparent manner.

“Your Excellences, Nigeria will continue to actively support the democratisation processes in our region West Africa and the African continent at large. But regrettably, our democratic gains of the past decades are under threats of unconstitutional takeover of power.

“This unwholesome trend, sometimes in reaction to unilateral amendments of constitutions by some leaders, must not be tolerated by the international community. Nigeria fully supports the efforts by ECOWAS to address this growing challenge and appreciates the support of both the African Union and the United Nations.

“I will conclude by reaffirming Nigeria’s enduring commitment to upholding, promoting and protecting democratic values and principles and strengthening the institutions that underpin a resilient democratic society.”

With these, the source maintained that the president would sign the bill before the Sunday deadline as part of his commitment to bequeathing on the nation an enviable electoral legacy.

Meanwhile, those pushing for the direct primaries to be taken out are not resting on their oars. They were said to be mulling their options, too. They were alleged to have recently advised the president, through their inner contacts, to inform the principal officers of the National Assembly that he would withhold his assent and urge them to reconsider the timing for the submission of candidates list from 180 days to 90 days, as it stipulated in the 2010 amended electoral act.

But others, believed to be interested in the legacy of the president have told him that even if he would return the bill on the grounds of a few contentious clauses, including the direct primaries, he must ensure that the entire effort at amending many other clauses did not go to waste and get the legislature to return it in record time, after their final alterations for his eventual assent.

Whichever way this is programmed to swing, analysts have contended that the credibility and legacy of the president are at stake. He would, therefore, have to choose between his own legacy and the need to please some vested interests.

Olawale Olaleye

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